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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (8571)	9/14/2000 12:25:14 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Scott, I think that your arguments are very valid. I however disagree with some of your tenets. For instance, the Japanese stock markets acts as if their future growth rate in GDP is going to stay relatively anemic (a lot of intrinsic reasons for that). I also believe that you are not factoring in the fact that even at the current "low" price, the NAZ and many sectors in general are at historic high valuations. I believe that such high valuations are not going to maintain themselves without constant infusion of liquidity in the markets. The closing of the "money window" for many of the dot.com companies, is in my opinion, an indication of the start of a shift in valuation psychology, and the market is nothing but a reflection fo "mass psychology". Whomever the next administration is going to be, their first year in office will address some of the bubbliness of the market and take the "bitter medicine" as early as possible in their own cycle (so as to be positioned later in the cycle, during the next elections in a rising rather than declining market). Thus my own tenet that a long awaited bear market in equities might occur next year. If that is the case, than growth assumptions provided now by industry may have to be ratcheted down, IMHO. By the way, I came here this morning to sing the praises of the coming major rally (I did say I expect 50% price rises in many semi equip of 50% from yesterday's lows), but I get bombarded as if i was a perennial bear (g). $100 on AMAT is not enough, you want $200 in the next 12 months? (VBG) Zeev