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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8579)	9/14/2000 2:24:59 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, How about a lower inflation rate globally than the periods you cite; How about a smarter fed and global set of central bankers; even if that IQ increase is almost infinitessimal; How about a broader recognition that equities have provided the best longterm rate of return; How about the "peace" dividend; and How about fiscal responsibility in the US? I grant that the latter may well be fleeting; but to expect that the current economic climate only warrants historic multiples seems to be missing a broader macroeconomic picture. Obviously, you don't endorse the Dow 36000 argument. ;^) Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8579)	9/14/2000 2:42:47 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 10921

<< at the bottom in 1982, the SP's PE was under 10, if memory serves>> Actually, I think it was under 7! Though perhaps that was the DIA rather than the S&P. Whatever, it was awfully low. Great discussion, thanks to all the participants. Don't have much to add, but will repeat that the semiconductor market today is so much broader, deeper and more diverse than it ever has been before that to lump all "chips" together in the same cycle is an increasingly larger mistake. DRAM, flash, ASICs, etc. will increasingly have to be differentiated as being in their own cycle, something that investors obviously haven't done yet. But they will, I think, do it more and more over the next few years, and the equipment suppliers will benefit from it, as well as the chip stocks themselves.