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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1823)	9/17/2000 10:24:51 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hey Zeev, nice to see you over here. I sort of agree w/ that scenario--didn't Clinton a while back tell Greenspan to start going easy on the rate hikes? Volty has said get out of the market in February. Your thots concur w/ that. Jill

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1823)	9/17/2000 12:58:48 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Zeev, As someone who (dimly) perceives the market through scenarios, I've followed yours with avid interest for some time. We are in an election year I still recall a conversation on a politically astute friend's porch in the spring of '68 and hearing him say "You want to understand politics? Easy, think dirty!" Subsequent events have verified his comment. When the 30 bond buyback began, I was also cynical about the underlying political (election) motivation. OTOH I'm sure you're familiar with George Cole's ideas about energy producer interests manipulating energy prices to benefit a couple of oil and gas boyz. We'll see who wins the "Tug o' War". The scenario I posted yesterday is considerable more bearish than the views commonly expressed on this thread. Its purpose was to strike a cautionary note. In your response to Jill, you outline a far more protracted bearish scenario that has some similarity to one of my "worst case" scenarios - although mine rarely extend as far into the future as yours. Of course, as always, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change their mind often (g). As I mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, my "takes" on the market are "written on water" for the market can (and constantly) does surprise me. As a first "tip off", now that expiration is over, this coming week will be interesting. If I had to guess I'd expect the next couple of days to be up. Following a down triple witch there is frequently a reflex. Given the old saw about amateurs controlling the beginning of the week and the pros the end of the week, Thursday and Friday will be worth watching. Good luck in both your trading and investing. lurqer