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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (30070)	9/19/2000 1:22:04 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

michael, My long term target on the NAZ is around 1500. Far be it from me to say it could never happen, but what you are suggesting would be the largest decline in the COMPX of all time, or at least as far back as I can get data. In January of '73, the Nasdaq peaked at 136.83 and pulled back nearly 60% to 54.86 in October of '74. The nearly 41% decline from 5232.5 to 3042.7 in this year is the largest since that time. I did a calculation identifying each month where a new high was reached, taking the peak of the last month in any set of adjacent months with higher highs, and then identifying the lowest low in that or any subsequent month to calculate the maximum decline from that peak. (This leaves out some minor retraces where a monthly low that was never subsequently exceeded came after that month's high, but it catches all the major declines.) There are 20 such major peaks since 1971, with an average retrace of 22.5%. I will not defend government intervention, or suggest that 5232.5 was a resonable level for COMPX to attain, but the 70% decline you suggest would be truly extraordinary. Dan