To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26507 ) 9/21/2000 12:06:50 AM From: William Hunt Respond to of 27012 THREAD---This is a great article on the oil issue : September 20, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trust-Busters Should Go After OPEC By Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer of LPL Financial Services in Boston. Crude-oil prices have now shot up to $37 a barrel, not far below the October 1990 peak of $40 a barrel during the Gulf War. Over the past year, higher prices have meant U.S. consumers directly lost more than $35 billion. Add to that the indirect impact on energy-consuming companies in the form of lost profits, employment and sales, and the loss easily mounts to more than $100 billion. Throw in investor losses from energy-driven inflation and Federal Reserve tightening, and we're talking really big money. The response from President Clinton and Energy Secretary Bill Richardson has been worse than useless. The administration's primary action has been to attack U.S. oil companies, gasoline refiners and distributors, accusing them of price gouging. But energy companies aren't guilty of "profiteering." Gasoline prices nationwide aren't going up any faster than oil prices. Energy-company returns have been generally subpar. Over the past 10 years the Standard & Poor's index for the energy sector has risen 133%, while the total S&P 500 index has risen 350%. Over the past 90 days the energy-sector index has risen 6%, about the same as the S&P 500 index. And the price/earnings ratio for the S&P energy sector is 17, while the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 27. Investors have clearly suffered owning U.S. energy stocks and don't think much of the sector's prospects. The administration's other response has been to propose building a heating-oil stockpile. This would do nothing to add supply to energy markets. It just interferes with normal refinery scheduling and would likely make matters worse by diverting oil away from production of other petroleum products. What the government should be doing is combatting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is mainly responsible for the run-up in oil prices. One way to do this would be to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. SPR oil sales could add two million barrels a day to U.S. supply, dwarfing the piddly 800,000 barrel-a-day increase OPEC recently announced. Just as important, SPR sales would start the process of emptying the reserve, allowing the SPR to repurchase oil in the event of a price crash. One of the major tools OPEC uses to maintain its control over the oil market is to threaten, and occasionally deliver, a price collapse to discipline non-OPEC oil producers -- keeping them from expanding exploration and production. An empty SPR would be ready to offset those OPEC actions and provide more stability to the oil market. Some have argued that this represents government interference in a free market. But as current developments make clear, the oil market is anything but free. Selling the SPR would provide some stability to oil prices and give non-OPEC producers a degree of protection from the cartel's predatory pricing. But anti-OPEC action shouldn't stop there. The U.S. government and the European Commission have been vigorously prosecuting companies for price fixing. Just last year, following a two-year investigation, six international companies paid more than $1 billion in fines for conspiring to fix global vitamin prices. Microsoft, MCI WorldCom and now America Online have been attacked for allegedly engaging in potentially monopolistic practices. The cases against these technology and telecom companies are complex and debatable. But clearly these companies have also added to global net worth, employment and growth in highly competitive markets. Just as clearly, over the past 25 years, OPEC has engaged in price fixing and anticompetitive practices that have damaged the world economy. We shouldn't allow OPEC oil companies to blatantly engage in behavior that we don't tolerate in our own companies. It is high time the U.S. Justice Department and the European Commission address the issue of the cartel's anticompetitive practices by placing OPEC oil firms in the same framework as other companies and markets. Trust-busters can tackle Aramco, Petroleos de Venezuela, the National Iranian Oil Co., the Libyan National Oil Corp. and other price fixers. These outfits are not hard to find; they collude openly in well-publicized meetings. And Petroleos de Venezuela is right on your street. It completely owns Citgo Petroleum, so as to more efficiently capture its monopoly profits in the U.S. What we need to do is treat OPEC members as global companies that have obligations under national and international law, not government agencies that are allowed to engage in illegal behavior. A concerted effort,, using U.S. foreign policy, the SPR and international legal mechanisms to take on OPEC, would constitute a serious energy policy. This would solve our immediate crisis, a shortage of oil. And it would provide a more stable environment for economic growth in the future. BEST WISHES BILL