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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 11:32:25 AM
From: RDM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Early Options Signals Show Little Investor Fear By Brian Louis Staff Reporter 9/22/00 11:22 AM ET Some things that investors thought would happen after a stock market giant like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news) unleashes bad news on the market aren't happening at all. Volatility Index Today % Change 25.74 +9.25 Source: ILX Conventional wisdom holds that there should be a flood of put buying in the options market after the earnings warning Intel spit out after the close Thursday. But that hasn't happened, and key options market indicators such as the Volatility Index and the put/call ratio aren't showing investors too scared by Friday morning's Intel-inspired selloff. Put/Call Ratio Today (10:45 a.m.) Previous Close 0.51 0.64 Source: ILX Intel warned that third-quarter revenue would be below its previous expectations, mainly due to weaker demand in Europe. The company said it expects revenue for the third quarter to be 3% to 5% higher than second quarter revenue of $8.3 billion. Intel was getting crushed, off $12.98, or 21.2%, to $41.50. Interestingly enough, with the Nasdaq Composite Index off more than 3%, the Chicago Board Options Exchange equity put/call ratio has actually dropped markedly compared to Thursday's closing level of 0.64. It was at 0.51 Friday at midmorning. The equity put/call ratio had only risen as high as 0.53 Friday morning. Jay Shartsis, options strategist at R.F. Lafferty in New York, said at midmorning that he was surprised that there wasn't more put buying and that the market was not down more than it was. Shartsis said the market's reaction was pretty bullish, although he wasn't calling for a bounce back Friday, but he did say it could come on Monday and it could get a more durable bounce. The Nasdaq Comp has rallied Friday sharply off its intraday bottom of about 3615, and was down 112 to 3717. Meanwhile, as far as Intel goes, there was some decent volume in the chipmaker's October 60 calls. The price of the calls was getting hammered, off 4 1/16 ($406.25) to 11/16 ($68.75) on the American Stock Exchange, on volume of more than 8,200 contracts. Traders could be selling the calls with the expectation that Intel's stock won't rise above 60 before the options expire on Oct. 20, that way they will keep the premium they took in for selling the calls. Action in Intel options Thursday ahead of the company's revenue warning wasn't particularly unusual. In front month options, the out-of the-money October 65 calls were most active, with 3,842 contracts changing hands on the Pacific Exchange. The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of the options market's anxiety level, meanwhile, was up, but didn't reach the heights typically associated with the carnage reflected in pre-market futures trading this morning. The VIX was up 9.25% to 25.74, but off a high of 27.04 and a mile off the 41.53 intraday 52-week high seen on April 14, amid the spring market collapse. The VIX rises when put buying on the S&P 100 index increases.

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 11:34:34 AM
From: RDM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert: It looks like $24 was not such a bad buy price after all! I think I will wait a few more hours and then buy some more AMD if it still looks good.

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 11:38:18 AM
From: cs_hork	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

At least one other private microprocessor company is targeting the mobile market and could capture between 2-4 million units next year. Wonder why he didn't just say Transmeta? And it's in the pre-IPO stage now, so it will be public before long. Or is he talking about someone else? Chris

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 11:55:01 AM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, Jonathan Joseph is our friend? Who'd have thought? One part you didn't highlight: We believe the significant challenge for Intel in the next 6-9 months is its transitions from the old PIII architecture to the new P4 architecture. As Intel management commented at the recent Developer Forum, the PIII was never designed to run much above 1GHz. Largely for that reason, yields at that speed grade and higher remain below average, and the 1.13GHz product was recalled. Meanwhile, we do not expect the P4 to hit large volumes until mid-2001. It has two problems: 1) the P4 is wholly dependent on RDRAM for its primary memory. Intel bet heavily that RDRAM would be widely deployed by now, expecting it to be 20- 30% of the market in Q4. Instead, RDRAM, which is costly and does not show much of a performance advantage, is only about one percent of the market currently. Intel will not have its own SDRAM PC-133 chipset until mid next year, though it may license Via to produce a chipset earlier. 2) the die size is large, and some OEMs actually believe the P4 underperforms the PIII at certain speed grades and in certain applications. For this reason, the P4 will probably not be a compelling technology until the 0.13-micron process shrink ramps in volume later next year. We believe the P4 will be a significant new architecture for Intel, only that the transition will take 6-9 months to smooth out. Once again, gotta get to Willy fades out into gotta get to .13um. But at least Intel is covering their bases there with plans to take p3 along for the ride. .18-.13 works out to a 50% area shrink, which still leaves Willy bigger than the current cumine die. Maybe THE WATSONYOUTH or some of the other process guys can take a guess at frequency scaling at .13um for p3 vs. p4? Cheers, Dan.

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 1:41:36 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, <SSB is finally on amd's side> I am glad to see this. Balain and Scovel also said this but my suspicion is these guys may not have anywhere close to the following that Joseph has. Based on the quality and timeliness of the stuff that has come from Jospeh over the last year, I am sure he has a good following. In my book Joseph has been the best semiconductor analyst for about 6 months now (excluding the end-of-cycle call). Niles used to be the king of the hill until a couple of months before he left Roberston Stephens. Chuck

To: AK2004 who wrote (9848)	9/22/2000 6:20:04 PM
From: crazyoldman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, Re: 06:48am EDT 22-Sep-00 Salomon Smith Barney (Jonathan ................................ ... * Advanced Micro# (AMD, $27.56, 2S) will likely increase its unit shipments from 28 million this year to 32 million in 2001, an estimate that is probably too conservative. The company is executing very well in its ramp of the Dresden fab, which should generate about 5,500 new wafer starts per month when fully ramped, about equal in output to the current fab in Austin. AMD seems to be having better luck at the high end than Intel. Thanks for the post. My favorite definition for the word "luck" is: Luck is where opportunity meets preparation." AMD has prepared and opportunity is presenting itself! Kindest regards, CrazyMan