Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (37410)	9/22/2000 6:08:58 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, thank you for posting your observations. From here much depends on individual expectation for cycle length, 12 more months, 18 more months? There WAS flattening last summer - followed by steepening. geocities.com It seems everyone knows the cycle will end, but not at what level of orders. The other unknown is the future level of the trough. Discounting of stock price seems to occur earlier now. If the peak price is not reached again and the uptrend in orders continues 12 more months, then peak price has occured about halfway into the uptrend [or 1 1/2 years before an order top]. Donald Wennerstrom has a more optimistic outlook Message 14439204 As for me - I just make charts. :) Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (37410)	9/22/2000 9:27:41 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Cary, I was hoping to divest some of my equipment holdings when we saw irrational exhuberance in late '00. My scenario did not pan out- yet. I fully believe that this cycle will go into '03 using current data points. At the same time, I will only be making additional bets on this sector using my own money, as I have been doing this summer with LRCX, EGLS, and KLIC. A note to threaders, I did not add to my AMAT holdings since they are already significant- 70% of my non-margined holdings. My core(non-margin) AMAT I will probably never sell. The margined AMAT may go sometime in '01 or '02, unless proceeds from other trades reduce my basis and effectively allow me to own current AMAT margined shares outright(ie no more margin debt) BK