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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4304)	9/22/2000 7:54:55 PM
From: Red Dragon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Gottfried: I completely agree with everything this poster said. That's why I said "eventually, you guys will all get bailed out (at the next cycle upturn)." Problem is, it may be quite awhile. Remember, investors are looking ahead 6-12 months. Looking at trailing or current semiconductor numbers is meaningless. The current numbers are, indeed, very impressive. But 6-12 months out? Investors are more worried. This is the third cycle for me. The first time, I stayed in too long, just like you guys have done. I learned, and played the second and third times much better. The accumulated experience allowed me to make all those predictions this year - outperforming 100% of all the analysts drawing mid six-figure incomes.

To: Gottfried who wrote (4304)	9/22/2000 8:23:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

As you point out Gottfried, that was an excellent post. Playing the cycles correctly would make anyone a very rich person. My problem is, however, this time it is different. I look at it as "interrupting the cycle" for a different reason than the previous cycles. In the prior cycles, the top of the cycle happened when the outlook turned bad, which was followed through with a tremendous contraction of bookings. Your own chart shows the situation. In the 1995 era, the bookings (rough numbers) fell from 1.5B per month to 800M over a 7 month period. In the 1997 era, the bookings fell from 1.7B to 500M over a 11 month period. Both of these periods show a tremendous retrenchment of bookings numbers. What do we have now? Your chart shows it beautifully! From the 500M/month low, the uptrend has been unbroken over the last 23 months to a present level of over 3B/month. The problem appears to be that in April, the B2B decreased substantially. That hit the "news" and most people who don't follow the situation all that well said " That's it - the cycle is over - sell!" The people who said/did that didn't notice the still increasing bookings. Notice that in 1999, even though there was a "trough" in the B2B, the semi prices just continued upward. This was as it should have been because the booking numbers were going upward. Logic would tell you the same thing should have happened in 2000, but now the "sky is falling" because the B2B went down (just like it did in 1999). As a matter of fact, your chart shows it very clearly, the bookings have continued on a much better upward slope this year than they did in the summer months of 1999. Now we get back to what I said previously - this year, the word had to be disseminated through the "official press/analysts" that the "cycle is over". In fact, it is not over as shown by your chart, but there is enough fear in the market, coupled with very little knowledge by most investors, that have let the naysayers have their way the last few months. I call them "bears".<gg> Now the 64 dollar question - when will the analysts/press decide that it is time to "have another cycle"? From what I can see, we should be able to start at any time. Perhaps in 2 to 3 weeks everyone will decide it is time to have the fall "rally" leading through the first of the year. Then we can be off to the races again, aided by the analysts/press with positive articles - I am ready when they are!!<gg>