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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4307)	9/22/2000 8:52:52 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 5482

Donald, I followed your reasoning step by step, looking at the chart. Your educated guesses at investor perception helped explain the inconsistencies well. You could have the right explanation. Ignorance or manipulation? Will the cycle be 'officially' restarted? These are rhetorical questions. :) Maybe people look at the fall '97 orders top and observe that btb decreases monotonically thereafter, not paying much attention to LEVELS. When orders peaked in '97, btb was just over 1.0, so backlog was not building any more. Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4307)	9/22/2000 9:48:21 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Donald, I look at it as "interrupting the cycle" for a different reason than the previous cycles. In the prior cycles, the top of the cycle happened when the outlook turned bad, which was followed through with a tremendous contraction of bookings. Even though it is the summer slow season, the semi manufacturers are digesting their new purchases, and there is a bottle-neck in the supply of lenses for lithography tools, we are still seeing rising bookings. On top of the record order rates, the foundries are still tapped out well into '02. Anyone who takes any amount of time to read or listen to execs from TSMC or UMC could see this clear as day. One more thing to mention about cycles ending. We typically see stock splits in all names in the sector. Currently however, many names are trading one-half of where they were during the last cycle, without ever splitting during this one(PRIA 60 old high and 22 currently; EGLS 36 old high and 18 currently; CYMI 49 old high and 33 currently). The list goes on and on. If this is a true upcycle, shouldn't a rising tide lift all boats? These are companies which dominate their niches yet have seen little appreciation in price and no splits to date during the current cycle. We should start a stock split indicator along with the BTB:-) Brian