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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (10022)	9/23/2000 3:10:27 PM
From: ptanner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

niceguy, Re: "increasing ASP from current $100 closing the gap to INTC's ASP of $175 to $200" I agree that increasing ASP will be a big boon in the next year and that this factor appears to not gain much consideration by analysts (P4 will "crush" perspective even though it will not be a mass market product until mid-01 and 0.13 P3s should be limited (comparatively) to Dresden. However, there will be some limitations to the pace or extent of the gains here for three reasons: (1) AMD will likely remain in a position of wanting to push marketshare growth through lower prices. Each quarter, as reflected by EPS Contest entries, we have been overly optimistic about the ASP gains. Durons also seem to be priced very low (MB cost balancing? maybe KM133 really needed?) and seem an extension of the K6 market rather than a slightly better class which would more fairly reflect the performance. (2) Slow penetration of premium MPU markets for workstations and servers; and (3) I believe that Intel's ASP will drop as a result of competition (in fact both AMD & Intel may see some pressure from other vendors [VIA] which encourages the duopoly to defend "their" market). With regard to (2)... AMD may be in a very good position with respect to users requiring premium performance on current applications not optimized for the P4 platform. The ability of Intel to define the direction of the market will be interesting to observe over the next year, particularly for software optimization. It would be nice if both AMD & Intel focus on SSE/SSE2 so that we may all move beyond the limitations of x87. I hope we see some results of more efforts to provide software optimization for AMD's processors beyond Compaq's FORTRAN compiler. I just bought a new printer instead of a SMOOTH Athy... held off once more for the new chips/chipsets/memory on the horizon. I hope that the next round of core technology will have a longer lifetime to allow for more product maturity (slots -> socket -> DDR) and fewer needs for widespread transitions. Regards, -PT