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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (74505)	9/25/2000 9:11:53 AM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

How about this assessment from on the OSX...... ______________ From PRU secutities morning call: Key reversal day on Friday. You don't get many of these. We saw the beginning of high volume odd lot or retail short selling, real fear entered the market. My call would be this is the very best chance we have for a true rally in the overall market. At the very same time Clinton strategically increasing supply of crude will remove the risk factor that finally hit bonds and the equity market. It's disinflation again. I have felt cautious on oil service for while and on Friday thought we were close to a buy level. We could be there today (another 3 or 4%downside). In my opinion . the US has chosen to use its ace card perhaps a little early. We are now exposed to some nasty sabre-rattling from Saddam in this last quarter..and we are still fairly close to capacity regardless of the emergency reserve announcement. But near term, consistent with last week, the fall in crude gives us a buy opportunity in financials. You could almost say the bull market is intact despite intense pressure, the SPX never closed below the 200dayMVA. A rally to the top of the range implies 100 S&P points.....

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (74505)	9/25/2000 9:18:11 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

More on the law of unintended consequences.... The big arrow pointing in the direction of oil flow has tipped towards Europe again. From Reuters <<London Brent futures fell 93 cents a barrel to $30.32 after a $1.48 decline on Friday in anticipation of the release which will add a million barrels a day to U.S. supplies for a month. U.S light crude in electronic trade fell $1.33 to $31.35.>> That gives a spread of $1.03 which tilts the direction of flow back toward Europe. <<Brent crude now is 13 percent below the decade-high of $34.98 a barrel set just a week ago while U.S. futures have tumbled 17 percent from a post-Gulf War peak of $37.80. >> At those prices the spread was $2.02 which is enough to justify the slightly higher shipping costs to the USA. I believe the politicos would be better letting market forces work these supply issues out. Another aspect to this SPR release is that it plants furthers seeds of doubt in the oil major's minds about increasing capex. First OPEC planted the seed with a well thought out public appearance of lacking direction on oil production increases. Now the USA sends a strong anti-market message to the majors. If this keeps up, combined with tax laws that heavily penalize inventory, we will get Simmon's grand oil crisis - Boom II. Sharp