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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (40113)	9/25/2000 8:56:32 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

So no matter how you look at it, this stock is going to perform well over the next year (at least at what us old timers know is a good return). Sounds to me like this statement is saying that CSCO is a "no risk investment". Isn't that the impression that he was trying to give. You defended that statement. No matter how you look at it, this stock is going to perform well over the next year??!!?!?!? Wasn't it these kind of statements that forced that kid to give back his profits? Is that not hype? I think it's irresponsible! If bulls are going to make statements like that, they better expect me to joke about it. Bambs P.S. lullaby tape working...baby sleeping...wife feeling better...back to my reading.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (40113)	9/25/2000 10:59:00 PM
From: D. Newberry	Respond to of 77400

Hi Phoenix, I don't visit this thread very often, although I have been a Cisco holder for over 6 years now. This is one of those stocks I don't really worry too much about. Your points on your post are well taken, and I would like to add a few others. First, Cramer has it wrong, IMO. Yes, voice long distance is going to $0 as Chambers said it would several years ago. That is not relevant, however, since the growth is in data for the telcos - and has been for some time. With the exception of perhaps AT&T, I think all of the carriers know that. For example, Qwest plans to increase capital spending, if memory serves me right, to $9B next year and $9.5B the next. The combined company (Qwest and US WEST) only spent around $7B this year. These expenditures are not going into voice services, but data - fiber plant, hosting facilities, DSL, etc. That will only benefit Cisco. I suspect the other telcos are doing the same. Yes, the telcos, LD carriers, and wireless carriers have it tough, and I don't have any money in any of them, but they absolutely must invest in new technology or they won't survive at all - again, an advantage for Cisco. Also, have you tried to purchase Cisco hardware lately? Late last year lead times for most hardware were around a couple of weeks. Lead times are progressively getting worse and in some cases we are now looking at up to 3 months to get some hardware out of Cisco. My guess is one of two things are happening. - Cisco has a severe parts shortage and can't get product out the door, or they are so screwed up they can't build anything anymore. - or, Cisco can't keep up with the huge demand. My bet is on the latter, which means earnings in early November should be a delight. We shall see in about 6 weeks. Regards, DN