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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (3691)	9/26/2000 12:24:40 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Sign of Bear makes much sense prolonged periods of churning with high volume, sector rotation, and minimal sideways results with major averages these conditions precede a nasty bear claw that is what I read... correct me if wrong I believe such characteristics are very typical at the tail end of Federal Reserve tightening cycles... as opposed to 1994 (last Fed tightening), this time we have a broad expanding economy... in 1994 we had emergence from a mini-recession following the Gulf War so I would say the Sign of the Bear will likely do some damage... watch out for very mature sectors like retail, stodgy industrials (who refuse to exploit internet), automobile value chain, PC niches, old networking, etc I would NOT worry about nascent expanding revolutionary technology sectors like fiberoptic, wireless, internet B2B, communications, advanced semiconductor, software mgmt in the next 8-10 months, I will not be surprised to see certain sectors declining 15-30% while others rise 100-150%... this time around, we should see true distinction and separation just rambling, Jim

To: lurqer who wrote (3691)	9/26/2000 5:02:24 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

Market Scenario Update Ten days ago with Message 14395881 an argument was made for us currently being in the second phase of a bear correction. The hallmark of such a phase is earnings jitters. Since that post the jitters have only amplified - INTC being a high profile case. Actually I don't believe either the earnings or the warnings have been all that bad. However it's not the facts, but the psychology (i.e. not the earnings but the jitters) that affects the market. And right now we have the jitters in &spades;'s (perhaps in part because of the new SEC FD rule). As long as this worry persists, I'm holding with the presented scenario (and slowly erasing my "runup to the election" scenario). Remember as I said in my earlier post, this is a market scenario and a particular stock may deviate significantly (John and Tim - read that as Q). In the context of the aforementioned scenario, it will be interesting to see how strong the end of quarter "window dressing" is tomorrow and Friday. lurqer