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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37476)	9/26/2000 5:10:55 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >I don't know, frankly.< That sums it up for me, too. Nothing to do but watch the charts. :) Gottfried

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37476)	9/26/2000 6:46:17 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

: all of our instincts tell us one thing while the market seemingly tells us another Jacob--Great Post. I always appreciate differing postions as long as they are not the yahoo pump and dumpers. And your position as I understand it is waiting for an appropriate time to buy amat et al. I have a question for you or maybe a couple of them. Where is the evidence of any end of the cycle? Isnt the intc aftermath way overblown? Dont we often see Septembers like this? My feeling is that we have a gross overreaction in the middle of a boom. Yes the cycle will end sometime. But I dont see evidence. We weather asia in 98 and we will weather high interest rates, oil and euro this year. Recession is what will do us in and I dont see it. Am i wearing blinders? Perhaps. But i keep reading Brians deluge of mostly postitive info and cant see anything but good stuff down the road.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37476)	9/26/2000 11:25:36 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

hold 12 months (so I pay 20% vs. 40% taxes), I think you have to hold it for 18 months now. If you miss the turn, you could be looking at holding AMAT till it hits a P/S of 1 (the 1996 low). I don't think it ever became that cheap. I remember P/S of 2. However, nobody on this board thinks AMAT will EVER trade at a P/S of 2 again.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37476)	9/27/2000 1:03:17 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

GREAT post! Thanks. I was thinking that we should talk to some people doing startups for home wireless (bluetooth?) A friend of mine is starting a small Bluetooth company and he says there are all sorts of devices with data sheets but you can't get your hand on the chips to build protos (last I talked to him....) I think the cycle ends when there is a glut...when we start seeing large companies get huge order cancellations for parts that were triple booked (that is what happened to the company I was at in '98). IF they are still building backlog, but at just a slower rate, then it MIGHT be a cycle about to end, but could just be digestion before going higher too (which many of us feel is the case now). Didn't the warnings start with Nokia and other cell phone companies saying their customers were waiting for new phones that needed new parts? It seems many are waiting for new chips that are yet to be built. Hard for me to see a cycle ending when the parts have yet to be delivered. I am glad I took some profits out at higher levels, but far below the peaks. I even started to buy some back at lower prices than I paid so there was some measure of success. I have much to learn to add more value over buy-n-hold and do appreciate your post that gave us bulls a whack on the head for a wake-up call! One thing for sure, it is a great industry to TRY to trade a bit as if you trade wrong, you just turn into a long term investor and that is not too bad in an industry with the growth rate we have. regards Kirk out