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Technology Stocks : WCOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: silicon warrior who wrote (7791)	9/27/2000 11:16:29 AM
From: donjuan_demarco	Respond to of 11568

I have managed to resist LU so far (I've been losing plenty catching all the other falling knives). There seems to be no bottom for it, I remember when it was at $50 and such a bargain.

To: silicon warrior who wrote (7791)	9/27/2000 2:44:48 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Timing is critical: I think what is happening to telecom today is analagous to the railroad buildout in the U.S. post-Civil War, except this buildout will happen over years, not decades. And, in the railroad buildout, there were many, many railoads that went belly up, and repeated market panics. Using my penguins-on-the-ice-flow analagy, I want to be the second penguin in. That is, I want to wait until the market is proven, the standards are agreed on. I do not want to buy BlueSky or Concepts. Clearly, there are going to be abandoned technologies, and companies that bet the farm on them will see their stock go to zero. My bets are: Clear Losers: 1. low-orbit satellites 2. double-twisted wire, and anything that uses it: DSL, in particular, is a transitional technology, that will be obsolete by the time the infrastructure is installed. 3. all protected markets, and the companies that that grew up in them 4. T, and all her progeny (includint LU) 5. any method of information transfer other than digital using IP. 6. servicing consumers 7. niche companies (either service providers or equipment companies, or infrastructure owners). Small companies. National champions. 8. service providers who don't own the infrastructure, and who depend on reselling services, or partnerships. The history of the telecom business, since deregulation began (and it is only about 40% complete), is that your partners will persistently screw you. Clear Winners: 1. wireless for the last mile 2. fiber optic for long-haul 3. the internet and intranets 3. servicing business. As JIT methods spread in the economy, companies will need to have intimate, longterm relationships with their telecom suppliers. That means high margins and high barriers to entry, rather than the commodity markets and churn that the Street is expecting. This is probably the main reason I like WCOM, because they already are way ahead of their rivals, in getting a lock on global dominance of this market. 4. companies that grew up in a competitive environment, (so their corporate cultures are not fixed in an obsolete style) 5. Providers of OneStopShopping for all telecom needs. Global footprint. 6. equipment makers, and infrastructure owners. 7. WCOM, QCOM, CSCO, AMAT, TXN 8. companies and investors who bet that there will be no glut of capacity for the next 20 years. I'm uncertain about: 1. high-orbit satellites (the distance means a noticable time-delay, and as most communication becomes two-way and real-time, this may be unacceptable) 2. cable. I'm concerned that this may just be a transitional technology. I'm certain that, eventually, we will have either broadband wireless and/or fiber-optic to every home/office/car/person/machine in our lives. But there may be a "window of opportunity", for cable, before this happens. And that window could last 20 years, or a lot less. I don't know. 3. INTC (leaning toward no), MSFT (leaning toward yes)