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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 11:29:21 AM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, Re: We figure AMD is producing on a quarterly run rate at least one million 1GHz-plus units currently, which is about 15% of output. Wow, great news. If this is true ASPs could be well above our expectations for this quarter. AMD gets at least $400 for every 1.0 GHz Athlon it sells (judging from Pricewatch data) and without K6-2s the output numbers would be at about 30%. No wonder Intel is losing high end market share ... Andreas PS: I wonder if this $100 price target is pre- or post-split. <g>

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 11:37:16 AM
From: david_langston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, Shares Outstanding(a) 152.8 mil. Is it customary for analysts to delay adjusting the per share numbers in their reports for over a month after a split? Perhaps waiting until after a quarter's end? Dave

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 11:52:24 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

albert, JJ made a major boo-boo in that his PE earnings figures are pre-split but his stock price isn't. I like that sheepish admission on flash: "AMD apparently raised contract prices slightly in Q3, may do so again in Q4, and is booked out for the foreseeable future." That doesn't seem consistent with "no change to our current estimates" since I don't think JJ thought contract prices would rise while spot prices are dropping like a rock (according to him!). Petz

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 12:16:47 PM
From: Neil Booth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)# AMD: Company update 2S (Outperform, Speculative) Mkt Cap: $3,743.6 mil. Well, that ANALyst is clueless - he hasn't realised the stock has split. See his P/E too. Apparently a P/E of 4.5 in his book only deserves a "speculative buy". Worthless. Neil.

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 12:49:55 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

A couple comments, Albert: We believe AMD's average speed distribution, at slightly over 800MHz, is currently running ahead of Intel's, which we figure is about 750MHz. Is AMD producing anything under 800mhz for Dresden T-birds now? Pricewatch lists down to 700, but Durons go to 750, I thought they didn't overlap in current production. Intel is shipping 1GHz PIIIs, but not in the kinds of volumes, at least as a percentage of total unit output, that AMD is putting out. We figure AMD is producing on a quarterly run rate at least one million 1GHz-plus units currently, which is about 15% of output. On the other hand, that speed grade it is probably less than 5% of Intel's total output. A million processors/month would be 15% of next quarter's projected output; it'd be 25% or so applied to this quarter's rate. Then there's the Dresden vs. Austin issue. On the other hand, if Intel were producing as much as 4% ghz parts, that'd be a million a quarter too. Less can mean many things, I'd guess less doesn't mean close in this case. Cheers, Dan.

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 12:57:35 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Albert, <We believe AMD's average speed distribution, at slightly over 800MHz, is currently running ahead of Intel's, which we figure is about 750MHz.> Since AMD starts Athlon line at 800MHz and that is the only part that ships at or over those speed grades, this number is high if one includes K6/Duron units and low if K6/Durons are excluded. The Intel 750 number is consistent with the data out there. <We figure AMD is producing on a quarterly run rate at least one million 1GHz-plus units currently, which is about 15% of output.> This is about 50% of Athlon run rate this quarter. The splits are dragged down by Fab25/Fab30 numbers. Dresden by my data is almost entirely at 1G+. Of course, since AMD hasn't quite entered the commercial sector, this does not necessarily mean 1M 1GHz+ shipments. <Unit demand remains very strong, and the company actually raised contract prices slightly this quarter and may do so again in Q4. > Quite nice to see those ASPs tick up! Now, how the heck does this guy comeup with meeting processor unit expectations, higher flash prices and lower costs (going from Athlon classic to Thunderbird) and come up with only $1.25 (i.e., $0.62 split adjusted) earnings for Q3? What kind of assumptions is he making? Or, is he confusing pre-split data with post-split data in his spreadsheets? Does someone here have access to Jonathan Joseph and get him to answer the questions? Chuck

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 1:30:29 PM
From: EricRR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

We figure AMD is producing on a quarterly run rate at least one million 1GHz-plus units currently, As others have pointed out, with 3.6 K7's in Q3, this is almost %30 of current athlon/duron production at 1GHz. It basically implies that all Dresden Athlons clock at 1GHz. No wonder AMD is so aggressively lowering prices in the high end.

To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 2:29:33 PM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Humph! Can't this guy even get the published #'s right. His numbers for shares outstanding are pre split. On top of that he is using non-diluted numbers- not very meaningful when EPS is reported in diluted #'s. Due to him using pre split #'s, all P/E, P/S etc. are off by a factor of 2! Additionally I think that his target price is also pre split- what, he didn't get time to divide his target price by 2? Albert, is this the general quality of analysts out there making the 7 figure salaries and bonuses? TG [Edit: I noticed that a lot of other people caught it too. I think that the concensus analysis on this thread is worth the weight in gold of the fatest dumbest analyst out there :) ]