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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (10748)	9/29/2000 3:04:41 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutamy, my EPS CONTEST numbers below. After doing some calculating I don't think there's much upside to the EPS estimates unless Athlons ASPs are very high or the 3.6 million number can be beaten. Everything depends on Q4 guidance IMO. Let's hope AMDs stick to its numbers. 1. EPS: 0.64 2. Athlons: 2.4 millions at $180 Durons: 1.2 millions at $60 3. K6s: 3.2 millions at $45 4. CPU revenues: $758 million 5. Memory Groupd revenues: $399 million 6. Total revenues: $1,220 million 7. Stock price: $30 Andreas

To: Goutam who wrote (10748)	9/29/2000 4:13:28 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutama, my EPS contest numbers: CPG group total revenues: 826M (+24%) 1M Durons @70 = 70M 2.8M Athlons @170 = 476M overall K7=3.8M @144 3.3M K6 @47 = 155M overall CPU 7.1M, 701M revs, ASP=$99 EPD+PPD+NPD = 125M Memory group total revenues: 405M (+12%) Foundry and Services: 50M Total Revenues, $ 1,281M (+9.4%) EXPENSES Cost of Sales: 650M R&D: 166M MG&A: 158M OPERATING PROFIT: $ 307M Interest & other income:0 Taxes: 61.4M NET PROFIT: $ 245.6M $0.69 per share (358 million shares) I'm being more bullish than most on K7's. Hope I'm right. K6's may be even lower, but its hard to judge international sales. EDIT - AMD price day after, NYSE close= 36 Petz

To: Goutam who wrote (10748)	9/29/2000 4:28:01 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Goutama, My estimates: CPG group total revenues: 665M 1M Durons @74 = 74M 2.5M Athlons @150 = 375 M 3M K6 @42 = 126M overall CPU 6.5M, 575M revs, ASP=$91ish misc = 90M Memory group total revenues: 425M Foundry and Services: 50M Total Revenues, $ 1,140M Profits: $0.63 per share AMD price day after, NYSE close= 29 1/2

To: Goutam who wrote (10748)	9/29/2000 8:31:46 PM
From: david_langston	Respond to of 275872

Goutama, my contest estimates: Segment ($ millions) Memory 402.5 CPG 840.5 Other 49.5 _______________________ Net Sales 1292.5 Cost of sales 667.9 R&D 161.7 MG&A 152.0 Operating Income 308.9 Interest Income 19.0 Interest Expense -9.0 Pre-tax Income 318.9 Taxes 63.8 Income 255.1 FASL JV Income 0.5 Net Income 255.6 _______________________ EPS $0.72 ___________________________ UNITS ASP K6-X 3.25M $40.0 K7type 3.70M $150.9 Total Units 6.95M $99.1 ........................... Classic 0.60M $125.0 Duron 1.05M $66.0 Athlon 2.05M $202.0 ___________________________ Share Price = $35.88 And I thought I was being conservative when I put this together. Regards, Dave