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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pawa who wrote (10852)	9/29/2000 10:34:40 PM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

re: "Can we just skip the 1st 10 days of Oct this year?" Margin is always a very dangerous game. No matter how sure you are, something can always happen to very negatively surprise you. It is even more ironic when that something is really an extremely positive effect but the market chooses to put a very negative spin on it. My current understanding, which may well be very flawed, is that AMD is the fundamental reason for inteL's great woes (the down draft from which is only one of the effects pulling AMD share price downward) and that we will, in due course see an humongous positive impact on AMD's earnings. I, as you and some others on this thread are, am hoping for some glimmer of this after the market closes on October 11. Do not bet the farm on it (as I must confess that I have done and in spades,) AMD does its accounting in the most conservative of methods and they have enormous start up expenses that other companies might choose to spread into the future. How much will they earn? I am almost confident that they will earn several dollars per share per quarter. How soon will this show up and more important to you how much on October 11? I do not know. I hope some of it does show up as a pleasant surprise. Patient Regards, DARBES

To: pawa who wrote (10852)	9/30/2000 11:31:19 AM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re: "Can we just skip the 1st 10 days of Oct this year?" I apologize if I am waxing too pedantic; but it is actually 11 days, since, AMD will probably not even start until 40 to 50 minutes after the NYSE October 11 close. Also, as before, the first reaction in the after-market may be perverse. (ie remember the "wisdom" goes "sell on the news.") One of the possibilities, I am not betting on this one yet, is that AMD could be so awash in earnings that it may choose to reset its taxation provision to a higher level. No doubt, many (though not all) of the ANALysts (lemmings, penguins, highly educated mindless wonders, and even such bastions of superior intellect as portfolio managers [many of whom first got their credentials as the lemmings that they ostensibly "used to be"]) will see this in the most negative of spins possible. I do not expect it but it may happen. Further, AMD may actually disappoint; not in the grandiose manner of intC and AAPL; but, enough to support the notion that further disappointments are on the way. (I my opinion; the misapplication of the "COCKROACH THEORY.") Remember, in this market inteL had seemed to be able to get away with "murder" while AMD has always been subjected to the severest of critical reviews. That trend is yet to be broken. In the very perverse world (the stock market) we find ourselves, AMD may be more severely punished than inteL and for a much lesser set of "crimes" or even no "crime" at all. I am not betting on the above worst cases to prevail; I am, however, trying to prepare my stomach for them. GOOD LUCK and Patient Regards, DARBES