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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amy J who wrote (111919)	9/30/2000 4:16:39 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Amy, >Speaking about Barrett's earlier comment regarding strong demand, when's the next CC? For a stock that has dropped this much (the second largest drop in the company's entire history), I am rather surprised Barrett (or Corp Comm) hasn't issued a press release to clear up the confusion regarding his earlier comments, or to set things straight, whatever the case may be. When Intel dropped the bomb a week ago Thursday, they said there would be no CC until next earnings day, which is Oct. 17. I'll be listening and taking notes. While here, I owe you an answer about server demand, which you asked about in a PM. That, and why did Dell cut servers so much. My opinion, which, along with about 3 bucks will get you a Starbucks, is that Intel based server demand remains strong. Two reasons: Compaq and HP both came out and virtually assured making their quarters. HP is skewed a month later than the norm, so they are really going out on a limb. I think that IA32 servers are so key to these companies, especially Compaq, that any significant downturn in their sales would hurt them a lot. Dell, I think I read, is still 80% PC, wrt revenues. That's much too high for me these days. PCs aren't growing at anywhere near 30%, and Dell isn't completely dominating them...lots of competition. Compaq has PCs at less than 50% now (revenues). So, IMHO, Dell, who's still expected to grow 30% a year, couldn't do that this particular Q with such a high % into PCs. So, they cut price drastically on a hot product line, servers, to make their revenue numbers this quarter. Also, Dell feels they need to move up, and that would have to mean getting bigger in servers, and they have a lot of catching up to do re Compaq. But, I don't think they will because they don't design the complete product (in fact they do essentially no design that differentiates) like Compaq, hence no IP/innovation. Maybe my prejudice as a development type is showing up here. I hope the Starbucks is worth the 3 bucks. Tony

To: Amy J who wrote (111919)	9/30/2000 4:33:54 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 186894

Amy--fwiw-My gut feel is that Barrett may well do just that this coming week (which is why Robbie put out the note on Fri am)--and that the comments will spark a vigorous rally in INTC's stock-which is VERY oversold short term based on momentum and is just itching for an excuse to rally --a la MSFT off the 60 level the first time around. MSFT then jumped 40% before starting the next wave down--My sense is that INTC is about due for that bounce and my hunch is that INTC is not going to stay silent till the mid Oct cc in view of the free fall in the stock. ---INTC may well be headed to 20's longer term who knows but it sure isn't likely to be in a straight line. I bought in on Fri solely for the bounce anticipation. We shall see.

To: Amy J who wrote (111919)	9/30/2000 10:05:56 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Amy, I don't know if the Timna (system on a chip) concept is DOA or not. It was a good idea a year ago, but not a good idea now? Maybe the market for low end PC's has dried up, and Intel feels it won't return, or maybe Intel's plan to address that market was flawed. The only thing we know for sure is that the original strategy has been abandoned, so you have to assume it was a strategic error on Intel's part. re: "For a stock that has dropped this much (the second largest drop in the company's entire history), I am rather surprised Barrett (or Corp Comm) hasn't issued a press release to clear up the confusion regarding his earlier comments, or to set things straight, whatever the case may be." I wouldn't expect any comments from Intel until their Q3 earnings CC, it's just not their style. I would certainly like to be a fly on the wall at Intel management meetings about now. I would like to see if they are pi$$ed off at themselves, or are blaming outside stuff for their recent problems. That would tell me a lot about the management of this company. Are they looking for a systemic problem, or just saying they are a victim of circumstance? Sadly, right now I can't help but focus on the risk, rather than the potential, of Intel. I sincerely hope that changes. John

To: Amy J who wrote (111919)	10/1/2000 1:46:56 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Amy, here's pretty good article, from Barron's no less, that talks about servers a lot, along with PCs, handhelds, etc. We've heard the part in bold before, from Barrett: Perhaps, but Compaq, in part through the acquisitions of Tandem Computers and Digital Equipment, has also gone out of its way to diversify up the ladder. The company is now No. 1 in servers, in terms of units sold. "There are essentially three parts of the 'Net where servers and workstations are being used, and we are big in all of them," notes Winkler. "At the core of the infrastructure are the large Unix-based mission-critical systems, the high-performance servers than can never be allowed to go down. At the edge of the network are Intel- and Microsoft-based servers that do a lot of content rendering, such as e-mail or control of communications. The third piece are the access devices and workstations." Margins here are much better than for PCs and growth is far higher and far more sustainable. "We believe the Internet infrastructure five years from now is less than 5% built," says Winkler. "We feel the market is vastly under-penetrated and that high-end server market will continue to grow at a very fast clip." Message 14488505 Looks to me like Compaq is a buy right now. Make it a strong buy. Tony