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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (12824)	9/30/2000 7:15:57 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

David, What I find surprising about the earnings warnings was that it was not coming from the optical or telecom equipment companies. One would think that if the warnings signs are out there (as that analyst suggested), we should be getting the odd profit warning in the sector. I keep waiting for Lucent but since they warned in July, the quarter is probably fine. These big slowdowns don't just hit all of a sudden. At this point companies like NT seem to be disagreeing with the slowdown scenario. Elsewhere, i read Cisco's backlog as of this month has growth by a factor of 4---I don't know if biz is that good or they can't ship due to shortages. My guess is that this just confirms what the CEO of JNRP said a while ago but both companies having so much demand. I think the same applies to optical. Maybe we have just gotten too negative on a sector that is just roaring. NT's forward PE is about 60 but their growth rate has been increasing as well as their technology lead. Too low a PE IMHO. I just have a feeling that Csco, NT, ADCT picked up a lot of Lucent business. As a result, the few players will be able to keep up the growth rates---considering the barriers to entry. I realize NT and CSCO don't exactly compete in sector. The way NT has been hit makes me think the market has severely overeacted. One would have to be insane to think NT will miss its number. I also think one would also be crazy to think NT is going to guide growth lower going forward. There is a greater chance of guiding growth higher with their big wireless deals that were not a factor in the last earnings report. The above is just a bunch of random thoughts. Trying to use the information to get a feel for where we are going in the sector. messages.yahoo.com

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (12824)	9/30/2000 7:27:25 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 24042

David, Re: Tax loss selling. What type of stocks would you think a mutual fund is selling right now---ones with gains or could it be losses. Considering the year has basically been a down in the techs, would you not think that tech funds already have already a lot of losses and may be selling some of the winners?--call it "tax gain selling". I think we won't get much of a sell based upon this reason --since the same funds distributed capital gains last year and the unit holders can now get losses to apply against the gains. I would think tax loss selling would be a big factor if the market had big gains this year--and the funds would have tried to minimize gains. In a flat to down year, tax loss selling could just be meaningless---especially since tax loss selling has nothing to do with "window dressing". On the economy, since the market discounts so fast, would you not think that the market starts rallying as soon as the corner is turned in FED policy---ie going to a neutral bias and then easing. The market may look into the future and discount the effects of easing. Then of course, it is easier to raise capital in lower interest rate environments--leading to more buildout of networks etc. etc. etc. I know I know what they mean by a soft landing--i think.<ggg>