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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (59234)	10/2/2000 10:06:36 AM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116972

census.gov read the explanation on the lower portion. How clear the amount of goods we import. So many things entering my mind now with oil high the under developed have greater cost in development and production. Californina long range oil industry is decreasing. We are not decreasing our oil imports contrary to what i have read about energy efficiency. We might be energy efficient but it is being used somewhere so i think of power generated.

To: Alex who wrote (59234)	10/2/2000 11:41:03 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 116972

Third-Quarter Earnings Preview -- Prices, Earnings Disappoint in Quiet Market 07:12am EDT 2-Oct-00 Salomon Smith Barney (Leanne M. Baker 415-951-1766) ABX H SALOMON SMITH BARNEY Multi-Company Note Precious Metals Third-Quarter Earnings Preview -- Prices, Earnings Disappoint in Quiet Market October 2, 2000 SUMMARY * The gold industry continued to struggle with low Leanne M. Baker prices, weak earnings, and investor disaffection 415-951-1766 during the third quarter. Gold prices averaged $276 leanne.m.baker@ssmb.com per ounce, down $4 from the second quarter. Janice Day * Our universe of gold stocks dropped 12.8% for the 415-951-1726 period, and remains down for the year. We do not janice.m.day@ssmb.com have a single stock in positive territory for 2000. * The largest companies turned in the strongest numbers, as usual, with smaller players struggling to maintain margins and visibility. * However, underlying macroeconomic, commodity, and industry trends are supportive. Should the U.S. dollar weaken for any reason, gold could respond sharply. * While we remain positive on gold in the medium term, we are cutting our 2000 estimate to $283 to reflect market realities -- but maintaining 2001 at $325. SUMMARY VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION DATA Earnings Per Share Company (Ticker) Price FYE Rating Target LTGR Current Yr Next Yr Barrick Gold Corp.- $15.13 Dec Curr 2H $29.00 5% $0.79E $0.75E (ABX) Prev 2H $29.00 5% $0.79E $0.75E Agnico-Eagle Mines L- $5.94 Dec Curr 1S $8.00 15% ($0.11)E $0.12E td. (AEM#) Prev 1S $8.00 15% ($0.09)E $0.12E Battle Mountain Gold- $1.75 Dec Curr 3S $4.00 0% ($0.08)E $0.03E Co. (BMG) Prev 3S $4.00 0% ($0.08)E $0.03E Cambior Inc. (CBJ) $0.44 Dec Curr 3S $2.00 0% ($0.14)E ($0.09)E Prev 3S $2.00 0% ($0.08)E ($0.06)E Echo Bay Mines (ECO) $0.69 Dec Curr 3S $2.00 0% $0.01E ($0.06)E Prev 3S $2.00 0% $0.01E ($0.06)E Hecla Mining (HL) $0.81 Dec Curr 3S $2.00 0% ($0.44)E ($0.18)E Prev 3S $2.00 0% ($0.40)E ($0.18)E Homestake Mining Co.- $5.19 Dec Curr 2H $12.50 25% ($0.06)E $0.20E (HM) Prev 2H $12.50 25% $0.05E $0.20E Kinross Gold Corp.- $0.56 Dec Curr 3S $2.00 0% ($0.11)E $0.02E (KGC) Prev 3S $2.00 0% ($0.09)E $0.02E Meridian Gold Compan- $6.00 Dec Curr 2S $8.00 NA $0.51E $0.52E y (MDG) Prev 2S $8.00 NA $0.51E $0.52E Newmont Mining Corp.- $17.00 Dec Curr 1H $45.00 20% $0.23E $1.35E (NEM) Prev 1H $45.00 20% $0.70E $1.35E Placer Dome Inc.- $9.31 Dec Curr 2H $15.50 15% $0.48E $0.28E (PDG) Prev 2H $15.50 15% $0.48E $0.28E Apex Silver Mines- $10.00 Dec Curr 1S $18.00 20% ($0.15)E ($0.18)E (SIL#) Prev 1S $18.00 20% ($0.15)E ($0.18)E Stillwater Mining Co- $27.15 Dec Curr 1S $40.00 15% $1.76E $2.27E mpany (SWC#) Prev 1S $40.00 15% $1.76E $2.27E OPINION The gold industry continued to struggle with low prices, weak earnings, and investor disaffection during the third quarter. Gold prices averaged $276 per ounce, down some $4 from the second quarter. Our universe of gold stocks dropped 12.8% during the period on a market-capitalization-weighted basis, and remains down for the year. We do not have a single stock in positive territory in 2000. As usual, the largest, lowest-cost producers performed best, with smaller players struggling to maintain margins and visibility. Meridian Gold was the quarter's strongest gold equity, climbing 8%, while Placer Dome and Agnico-Eagle held their value reasonably well. All the others are off 13-30% for the quarter. Despite the well-established bear case for gold, underlying commodity, industry, and macroeconomic data are supportive. With greater central bank transparency and lending nearing its natural limits, the stage is set for gold's commodity deficit to be felt. At the same time, the fragmented, out-of- favor gold industry is simply not viable below $300 per ounce. Strong Australian and South African currencies have provided a temporary reprieve, but the widening financial distress in the mid-tier of the industry tells the story. We believe that industry consolidation looms, driven by an exploration collapse, capital unavailability, and the need to appeal to a broader value investor base -- which in turn demands a billion market capitalization leader. The premium multiples afforded leaders across the Old Economy adds reinforcement. Nevertheless, company cultural and cross border issues remain. Macroeconomic themes have returned to prominence in the gold market, after a decade-long hiatus. At this point it's all about the US dollar -- which has maintained a remarkably tight 0.85 correlation with gold since April. To the extent that any macro shock could seriously dent the dollar, such as: aggressive defense of the Euro, rekindled oil prices, or earnings- disappointment fuelled foreign disaffection with US equities -- gold could rebound sharply. Salomon Smith Barney's economists believe that the dollar is significantly overvalued, and that the market underestimates the scale of likely ECB tightening over the next 12-18 months. Thursday's upward revision to BLS inflation numbers reinforces cynicism about "core" figures and begs the question of how big the post-election revisions will be. We published a comprehensive 80-page sector report yesterday titled "Gold: Darkest Before Dawn?" which examines the data and arguments in detail -- covering macroeconomic, commodity, and industry/consolidation themes. We are cutting our full-year 2000 gold price estimate to $283 to reflect market realities, but maintaining 2001 at $325. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES PER SHARE DATA Current Year* Next Year Next Year + 1 Ticker Period Current Previous Current Previous Current Previous ABX 1Q $0.17A $0.17A NA NA NA NA 2Q $0.18E $0.18E NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.22E $0.22E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.22E $0.22E NA NA NA NA Year $0.79E $0.79E $0.75E $0.75E NA NA AEM# 1Q ($0.06)A ($0.06)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.06)E ($0.06)E NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.02)E $0.00E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.03E $0.03E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.11)E ($0.09)E $0.12E $0.12E NA NA BMG 1Q ($0.02)A ($0.02)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.04)A ($0.04)A NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.02)E ($0.02)E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.00E $0.00E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.08)E ($0.08)E $0.03E $0.03E NA NA CBJ 1Q $0.02A $0.02A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.05)A ($0.05)A NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.06)E ($0.03)E NA NA NA NA 4Q ($0.05)E ($0.02)E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.14)E ($0.08)E ($0.09)E ($0.06)E NA NA ECO 1Q ($0.04)A ($0.04)A NA NA NA NA 2Q $0.04A $0.04A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.01E $0.01E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.00E $0.00E NA NA NA NA Year $0.01E $0.01E ($0.06)E ($0.06)E NA NA HL 1Q ($0.13)A ($0.13)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.10)E ($0.10)E NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.11)E ($0.09)E NA NA NA NA 4Q ($0.10)E ($0.08)E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.44)E ($0.40)E ($0.18)E ($0.18)E NA NA HM 1Q ($0.06)A ($0.06)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.01)A ($0.01)A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.00E $0.05E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.01E $0.07E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.06)E $0.05E $0.20E $0.20E NA NA KGC 1Q ($0.03)A ($0.03)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.04)A ($0.04)A NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.03)E ($0.02)E NA NA NA NA 4Q ($0.01)E $0.00E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.11)E ($0.09)E $0.02E $0.02E NA NA MDG 1Q $0.11A $0.11A NA NA NA NA 2Q $0.14A $0.14A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.13E $0.13E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.13E $0.13E NA NA NA NA Year $0.51E $0.51E $0.52E $0.52E NA NA NEM 1Q $0.04A $0.04A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.02)A ($0.02)A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.02E $0.25E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.18E $0.42E NA NA NA NA Year $0.23E $0.70E $1.35E $1.35E NA NA PDG 1Q $0.13A $0.13A NA NA NA NA 2Q $0.12A $0.12A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.11E $0.11E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.11E $0.11E NA NA NA NA Year $0.48E $0.48E $0.28E $0.28E NA NA SIL# 1Q ($0.02)A ($0.02)A NA NA NA NA 2Q ($0.05)A ($0.05)A NA NA NA NA 3Q ($0.04)E ($0.04)E NA NA NA NA 4Q ($0.04)E ($0.04)E NA NA NA NA Year ($0.15)E ($0.15)E ($0.18)E ($0.18)E NA NA SWC# 1Q $0.52A $0.52A NA NA NA NA 2Q $0.31A $0.31A NA NA NA NA 3Q $0.42E $0.42E NA NA NA NA 4Q $0.51E $0.51E NA NA NA NA Year $1.76E $1.76E $2.27E $2.27E $3.87E $3.87E DAK