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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (10241)	10/3/2000 12:10:17 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

The "Abby Rally"?? biz.yahoo.com Didn't she reduce tech weighting near the NASDAQ peak? ``We believe that the backdrop for investments in technology is favourable,'' Abby Joseph Cohen, one of Wall Street's most influential stock analysts, said in a conference call, reevaluating a sector she had labeled as overvalued in March. Hmmm... Looks like even Abby does a bit of market timing... I wonder if she is buying that 5% back now? 8)

To: Allan Harris who wrote (10241)	10/3/2000 1:18:32 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 42834

I assume you also measure bull markets from the lows and the low earlier this year in the NASDAQ was followed by a rally of about 40%, currently about 20% above that low... To give credit where it is due, Brinker did identify that situation (which you call a "bull market" and he called a "bear market rally") and generated a profit of about 15% over a period of about 2 months or so. It is not even close to the 40% that one would have got had one got in at 3040 and exited at 4250 or so, but certainly was a good return considering the market conditions.

To: Allan Harris who wrote (10241)	10/3/2000 4:01:43 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I have to say that was a good post, even though I obviously have made different choices than you. I admit that there are legitimate criticisms of Brinker, but somehow I am not able to get past the fact that the overall market's flatness and the NASDAQ's weakness since last winter will represent a huge change from previous performance, unless we get a decisive turnaround by the end of the year. He was a couple of months early, but it will still amount to a stunning achievement, unless he blows it and totally misses the bottom. I have not followed the four per cent guideline either. I believe he espouses this because some of his less sophisticated listeners have put huge percentages of their portfolios into some stock that he mentioned, and then gotten scared out on a dip. I have a higher risk tolerance than that, and in any case would never blame him if I got burned by overconcentration in a stock or industry.

To: Allan Harris who wrote (10241)	10/3/2000 8:12:07 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Alan thread I must admit to hearing a few snippets from the show last weekend, one about measuring bear markets from the peak I too find this very curious to say the least. This year is the first year I have heard Bob measuring from the peak. I cannot recall hearing this type of analysis before for either a bull or bear market. Bob, up to this year measured the returns of the indexes on a year-to-date basis going back to the 1980s. This is inconsistent; shall I dare say he is spinning the facts here? I received a private email from someone stating Bob did not measure the 1987 crash from its peak instead the message was that the S and P was up 4% that year. The message goes on to say he did not measure the asian crisis bottom from peak to trough but on a year-to-date basis. I find Bob's analysis inconsistent at times. As for me, I am starting to dollar cost average into this market. I will be satisfied at receiving a very good bottoming price rather than an absolute bottoming price if we are bottoming here rather than miss the upturn altogether. Further, I find it fascinating that Bob and Abbey have opposite views as delineated by Abbey's analysis of the market today. Since I respect both it will be interesting for me to see who will be so wrong.