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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37732)	10/3/2000 2:07:59 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, It is possible that the market/charts are telling us something that just won't happen, whether it be hard landing or an end to the up chip cycle. Charts are showing that alot of people can be wrong and that a minority may be right. That's the bet the longs are making. Nasdaq 5000 in hindsight was a ridiculous overreaction and this is the opposite. Bet charts looked good near the top and i remember Battapaglias visits to cnbc at that time. We didnt get to 6000 then and i dont believe we have much lower to go. Hope for a greenspan surprise in 5 minutes. MIke

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37732)	10/5/2000 12:18:37 PM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>downcycles last about 12 months. That would mean it would be prudent to wait till (very approximately) April 2001 to get back in. does this apply to amat, dram manufacturers or the semiconductors in general? same question as above re. PE's: "Anyone who follows PEs, will totally miss the turns in this industry. " --thanks

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37732)	10/5/2000 1:26:51 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE "1. down cycles last about 12 months. That would mean it would be prudent to wait till (very approximately) April 2001 to get back in." Yes, but the strange thing is, this cycle, the price cycle ended about 7 months ago but the fundamental semi cycle has not ended. Bookings have continued to rise. While stock prices can lead fundamentals by a year, I don't think anyones outlook 5 months from now (plus the 7 months we're down = 1 year) expects things to be bad enough to justify the current prices of many companies in the sector such as KLIC, COHU, EGLS, ASYT, LRCX, etc. Obviously, the huge premium that AMAT carries puts it in a more vulnerable category. Looks like everyone has to have their two year semi cycles. This semi cycle, we may get two stock price cycles within one fundamental cycle. One can argue that fundamentals are (or could be) somewhat weaker for the sector, but this is nothing like the REAL fundamental down cycle of late 1998 or 1996. On a price to "reality" scale, we are lower than the 1998 lows for many companies in the sector (AMAT not included).