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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (4766)	10/5/2000 9:36:49 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

Thursday 10/5 Rydex nova 488.3 ursa 297.1 otc 2804.2 arktos 120.9 cash 1292.2 titan 95.1 tempest 19.5 velocity 78.2 venture 52.9 pm's 26.7 so here we are folks on the flip side of sept 1st, or are we, the put calls are showing bottoming behavior (but they didn't show exhuberance at the top - which screwed me up -g-), but the rydex ratios are still showing a lot of bullishness for such a significant drop in spx/ndx, during last years scary month we had ursa assets exceed nova, this year the new leveraged funds are showing extreme bullishness after a 100 point drop in spx. i still think until they start buying the bear funds with gusto that the trend is down and trades on the long side should just be quick or your dead -g- there may still be an annual fall big vix, frontpage headline bottom waiting out there somewhere. bwdik

To: J.T. who wrote (4766)	10/6/2000 12:09:23 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

After wednesday close I mentioned the slithering snake turn down in UTIL and BKX... Today BKX is banging on its rising 50 day MA which is now BKX 873. Likewise, On weds we mentioned the 50 day MA must hold 870 one close below this level and it is lights out. Right now we are at BKX 871... down 31 down 3.48%... ....<Now today we get the bounce in tech from oversold levels, but notice how BKX and UTIL turn back down from near 52 week highs. This is the very reason why the SPX was only up 7 + points. UTIL must be watched very closely in here as we booked a higher high all time high double top at UTIL 401.47 on 10/2 after a previous all time high of UTIL 397.04 on 9/15. In 2 quick trading days since we are below the converging 25 and 13 day MA 383/385 level to close at UTIL 382.07 down 11 down 2.86%. A second consecutive close below UTIL 383 will raise a warning flag for the SPX and DOW and bring an immediate double test back to its 50 day MA UTIL 367 level tested and held back to back on 9/20 9/21. Likewise, BKX after hitting 52 week high on 9/11 at BKX 918.09 we approached a double top yesterday close at BKX 913.60 only to turn back down today to close at BKX 896 and change down 17 - 1.91%. BKX must stay above its 50 day MA BKX 870 but first will test 25 day MA BKX 887+ that was registered on 9/29. If BKX and UTIL continue to move in tandem down tech slowdon in earnings will catch up to NDX and SPX and we will register lower lows.>... Last night I mentioned JPM and MER as micro-barometers and they are both tanking below key supports... MER is down 4+ to 62 1/4 below critical support 62 7/8 while JPM is confirming yesterday's break of 160 as no fluke now down 5 to 154 3/8... from MITA last night... ...<I did a quick scan the month/week before the 87' crash and both bank stocks as measured by C and brokerage stocks as measured by MER were very strong and showed no discernable slippage until the day of the crash. Both MER and C are relatively strong now just as thery were in '87 prior to the crash. MER a break below the 100 day MA 62 7/8, C 51 3/4 the 100 day MA which has good latitude. MER for me is key barometer. A break of MER 62 7/8 1 close and lights out>.... ...<HWP is ugly, IBM is losing traction. JPM had its first close below 160 in over amonth. A second close below 160 and goodnight...>... This break is very real and will accelerate this afternoon... Best Regards, J.T.