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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edamo who wrote (161706)	10/5/2000 7:56:49 AM
From: hdl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

the areas of potential growth are deeply entrenched with the likes of sunw and emc.....and as you aptly put: "customers who don't like changes...." they changed from mainframe to mini-computer to pc. they changed from ibm to cpq to dell

To: edamo who wrote (161706)	10/5/2000 9:23:19 AM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

edamo, all good points. Pretty well understood by most now. Dell has outlined future growth (servers, portables, storage, services), not too many like the answer because it includes being one of the most profitable PC makers. The market wants dell to abandon PC's altogether and Dell's response is basically 'that's stupid, were making good money in the business' it just does not have the growth potential it once had. Although they are growing enterprise much more rapidly and reducing PC sales as a % of Revs, PC's will remain their growth albatross. The market currently doesn't like this and will not reward this, maybe anytime soon, maybe never again, or maybe good times are just around the corner. Who can predict what the street will value next? In any event, I'm looking to hear their enterprise story today. One thing for certain however, Dell's model makes it very, very difficult for them to loose money the way CPQ did in 99 as their cost and inventory structure is just too lean. That's why I believe they have a minimum valuation $20-$25 that will be very difficult take out -- were pretty close if not at the bottom. Of course, that also depends on the entire market. Should we continue to revert to the mean where PE's of 10 - 15 are common once again, Dell would trade at 1x sales. The market has changed over the last few years as you state and perception outweighs actual results. Investors want the potential of upside surprises and the possibility of limitless growth (be it real or not) to get excited about a stock. Once the future is known, it becomes discounted. But the market will likely change several more times throughout the course of my investing career. I can't say what investors will value next. The stock will be back, even IBM came back. It took six years for IBM to go from peak to trough before it took off. Dell only has 4 more years to go. Patience<gggg>. MEATHEAD