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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dealer who wrote (6035)	10/5/2000 8:45:45 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Experts Talk Up Tech Stocks Prematurely 10/5/00 8:19:17 AM Source: USA Today NEW YORK -- Credible experts using straightforward logic are making a case that the bloodletting in tech stocks is coming to an end. Maybe they're right, but don't count on it. Many of the ailments hurting the shares are serious. They won't be cured as quickly as a crashing dot-com stock purges day traders from the market. The problems are likely to linger until the prices being paid for the stocks of great tech companies are convincingly in line with the companies' future sales and profit growth. It may be months before Wall Street shows it has a reasonable fix on how many more PCs, computer servers, data storage cabinets, software packages, semiconductors, wireless phones and telecommunications lasers tech companies will sell next year. But haven't the tech giants already come down to reasonably safe levels? After all, since Aug. 31, Intel is down 44%, Oracle 25%, Dell 35%, Cisco 15%, JDS Uniphase 24% and the Nasdaq 16%. Since its March peak, Nasdaq is down 30% to 3523. The declines have helped and are one reason Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen calls the backdrop for tech investments ''favorable.'' Jeff Applegate of Lehman Bros. figures that the price of tech stocks relative to their expected earnings growth rates has fallen back in line with the rest of the market. And, yes, there are other reasons to think the stocks won't fall further. Successful mutual fund manager David Alger cites the stabilizing of the euro, the easing of oil prices and, most important, the apparent end of interest rate increases. Plus, headlines will clear any day of earnings warnings for the September quarter. ''We're looking for a strong bounce'' in tech stocks, Alger says. He predicts Nasdaq will end the year above 4,000 with a modest gain for 2000. But reasons more trouble may lie ahead are as nearby as Dell's announcement late Wednesday that its latest revenue, while up 7% from the previous quarter, is 3% short of expectations (story 1B). Disappointing growth in personal computer sales was high on a recent list of tech stock worries put together by analysts at UBS Warburg. What's telling is that the problem hasn't been falling PC sales. Sales are growing, just not enough to catch up with the surge in PC makers' stocks last fall and winter. Hopes that Microsoft's introduction of Windows 2000 would save the day haven't been realized. Another worry: Demand for computer servers won't grow as fast as before, now that the dot-coms are in trouble. Without the threat of their competition, established firms may be slower to build up online. And on top of that, sales of wireless phones are up but still short of grand expectations by phone makers, their suppliers and investors. But Wall Street's most revealing tech conundrum may be the debate over next year's spending on telecommunications equipment by carriers from giants like AT&T and WorldCom, to Internet backbone companies Level 3 and Williams, to local access outfits such as ICG and wireless networks such as Sprint. Sales to carriers have been key to Cisco's 60% annual revenue growth and the strength of its stock. They've also driven optical equipment stocks, which at least until September, were successors to dot-com fever. Analyst Paul Sagawa at Sanford C. Bernstein expects global spending on telecom equipment will grow 19% in 2001, down from 28% growth this year. Saying that's not enough to keep up the revenue and earnings growth expectations built into the prices for Cisco and Nortel, he downgraded their stocks last week. The carriers plan to actually cut their spending from last year's levels. Sagawa, giving the equipment makers the benefit of the doubt, is guessing the carriers will go over budget as they have past years. But the carriers will have trouble spending 19% more because they've already borrowed and spent heavily and don't have free cash flow. Sagawa says the slowdown in growth won't show up as slowing the equipment companies' revenue growth before January. But as the consequence comes into sight, investors may conduct an ugly reassessment of how much faster tech can grow than the world economy.

To: Dealer who wrote (6035)	10/5/2000 10:14:26 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

QCOM--By: wirelessgoing (FROM RAGING BULL MGS BOARD) Reply To: None Thursday, 5 Oct 2000 at 6:32 PM EDT Post # of 64566 Just got back from China. Saw heated debates there on the wireless modes and standards for that country. It seems the government made its mind to go CDMA. Lots of Nokia/Ericy lobby there for the continuance of GSM only, but CDMA was given a lucrative chance to spread to the second largest China Unicom gate. The debate there is over now. People know CDMA are going big time. Was asked by Chinese about the shortage of wireless components/parts in the US and how that could impact the CDMA going there. Seems a big percentage CDMA components are shipped via Hong Kong into China from Korea and Japan, and then assembled inside China for handsets. Good design and looks for the CDMA handsets to be distributed within this month to provincial sales shops.

To: Dealer who wrote (6035)	10/6/2000 8:28:39 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

<font color=Red>AFTERHOURS QUOTES & EARNINGS REPORT DATES (after quotes) Voltaire's Porch Basket of Stocks These Stock Have Not Been Picked By Any One Individual GORILLA--A company that controls it market because it has a discontinuous innovation ,one that is not compatible with existing systems. The market is in a hyper growth stage, and they control the architecture. There is a high switching cost to using some other company's product, KING--The Market leader, properly with a two-times lead or better over its closest competitor. If the lead shrinks too far, the king becomes a prince, and we have a kingless market. Because they lack architectural control, and because switching costs are low, they cannot force competitors onto the defensive the way Microsoft, Intel, or Cisco can. Compaq is a king. Seagate is a king of hard drives. A lot of study has been done on these stocks by the Gorilla and Kings thread. There are the stocks that are discussed most often on the porch........and 1 or more are in most porcher's portfolio. The following Stocks are on the Gorilla and King Index QCOM CLOSE 77 13/16 AFTERHOURS 78 GMST CLOSE 81 1/4 AFTERHOURS 81.375 JDSU CLOSE 91 3/78 AFTERHOURS 91.6875 SEBL CLOSE 92 7/16 AFTERHOURS 92.875 NTAP CLOSE 118 1/16 AFERHOURS 116.01 The following Stocks are on the Gorilla and King Wait and Watchlist The Watch & Wait Index consists of stocks that have some desirable characteristics but are not necessarily Gorillas or Kings - at least not yet. Most of them will not be, but they bear watching for that possibility. They are as follows: BRCM CLOSE 227 5/16 AFTERHOURS 227.4375 CREE CLOSE 111 1/4 AFTERHOURS 111 ELON CLOSE 23 9/16 AFTERHOURS 22 PMCS CLOSE 199 1/16 AFTERHOURS 198.3125 RMBS CLOSE 80 AFTERHOURS 79.02 RNWK CLOSE 32 1/2 AFTERHOUR 33.24 WIND CLOSE 40 3/4 AFTERHOURS 40.6875 SNDK CLOSE 65 1/16 AFTERHOURS 62.75 INTC CLOSE 39 15/16 AFTERHOURS 40 CSCO CLOSE 56 3/16 AFTERHOURS 56.3125 For TL by special request: Is not a gorilla or king ALTR CLOSE 44 5/16 AFTERHOURS 44 "Voltaire's Cover Call Strategy 101" see Post # 9490 Post #'s of Recent Cover Call Strategy Discussions From recent discussions--August 16,17 and 18, 2000 see post #31425 updated 8/31/00 Contest: “Which Stock Will Double?” link below Message 13523976 27272 Original Posts "Voltaire Cover Call Strategy 101" EARNINGS REPORT DATES: THESE WILL BE POSTED ON THE AFTERHOUR QUOTE QCOM..........11/2 GMST..........11/13 JDSU..........10/25 SEBL..........10/17 NTAP..........11/13 BRCM..........10/17 CREE..........10/27 ELON..........10/20 PMCS..........10/12 RMBS..........10/17 WIND..........11/30 SNDK..........10/18