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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (175)	10/7/2000 4:13:57 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24758

I personally like the fact that Jerry was somewhat combative and very persistant. The number2 at the company last year wanted to sell the Dresden fab, now he is gone. Had they sold Dresden there ability to grow CPU production would basicly be zero. (Flash memory would still be growing pretty well though, the flash is produced by FASL a joint holding with Fujitsu that has several flash fabs). I bought the stock on the way up originally. My early purchases are still profitable (the first one is still a two bagger), but I was buying it not as a trade based on technical analysis (which I knew almost nothing about at the time) but rather as buying in to an undervalued company that had just released a great new product and would soon be makeing a lot of money. I was right about my geuss as to the money (in fact I underestimated how much they would make), but I was wrong in my assumption that the company would become fairly valued for its profits and growth. Even AMD's recent all time high seriously undervalues the company in my opinion. I didn't know enough about how the market works to understand that it would take a bit longer before many people think the turn around is for real. AMD has disapointed to much in the past to make a couple of outstanding quarters totally change investors opinions on it. Another mistake I made was that I didn't anticipate the bear market. When other stocks went down in April and AMD kept going up, I assumed it was merly because many of the stocks that did crash had rediculous valuations (some of Internet stocks that had or even still have higher market caps will never be as profitable as AMD no is). I thought the money would go to reasonably priced companies that are executing well. I didn't have a lot of experience investing and I did not anticpiate that the declines would create such a bad market climate. I don't really have any money left to buy any more stocks this month. Hopefully in November stocks will have turned around a bit but not gone up so much that I don't find them cheap anymore. If AMD keeps going down for much longer it will be in a situation where its fabs are worth as much as its market cap, and its flash memory sales alone (evening if you assumed that its CPU business was a POS worth $0 which it is not) would be enough to reasonably support its market cap. I probably sure wait for a better techincal time to buy (as my recent losses have shown me), but its hard to resits such a bargin. I'm not buying right now but I am not selling either. Even if it goes down more I believe strongly it will be a lot higher next year. My position in ATHM is only 50 shares. I bought it at about 12, and now ofcourse its gone even lower. I tried tradeing it twice at higher levels, and sold both at a small loss (fortunately because if I held on it would have been a large loss). At some point I will probably buy another 50 so I can sell a covered call against it. Tim