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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/6/2000 9:18:56 PM
From: Lyle Bean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Soon, AMD will have enough cash to buy RMBS.

To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/6/2000 9:50:39 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, <Perhaps the smart money is figuring that a rambus lawsuit is inevitable.> I am not sure it takes smart money to figure this one out. Ignoring pie-in-the-sky stuff there are basically 2 ways Rambus can make money - DRAM royalties and controller royalties. The DRAM guys have either settled or in lawsuits so the next in line are controller guys. There are only 3 controller companies that are worth collecting royalties from Rambus perspective - Intel, VIA, AMD - probably in that order. So, sooner or later Rambus has to come to AMD. <In which case AMD stock gets dumped big-time.> Why? What is the significant downside to AMD? <Everybody who has sued Rambus has gotten burned.> I am curious as to why you say this. What do you have in mind? <Surely this is a big black cloud hanging over the stock.> Again, why? The cloud, from my perspective seems to be the concern about health of PC industry and the concern about overcapacity leading to price war. With good earnings and proper guidance (not sure Jerry can pull off the second one) things should start looking up soon. <And rambus will likely strike when the DDR shows up.> Firstly, I am not sure if there is any jeopardy for AMD here. The Japanese have some sort of agreement (at least near term) with Rambus and should be able to supply DDR even if Micron or some of the other back off due to Rambus threat (and I don't expect them to.). What do you see differently? <May explain why smart money is not backing the truck up at these prices.> If you ask me it is dumb money that is getting out at these prices. AMD will have solid earnings this quarter (mid-70s at the minimum even if K6s comeup really short). Q4 is shaping-up to be a dramatic quarter for AMD so I expect good guidance (unless of course there has been some trouble on the infrastructure side we are not aware of. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/6/2000 10:03:06 PM
From: EricRR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Rambus isn't stupid. If (god forbid) they actually are able to enforce the SDRAM patents, then they will make just as much money from that as from Rambus sales. Either way they win, so I don't see why they would prefer either platform. As for Intel/Rambus conspiracy theories, if Rambus tried to give AMD worse terms then Intel, it would be a giant invitation for the FTC to attack Rambus all around. Rambus would be stupid to repay Intel for their support in that way. I don't think Rambus will win the patent dispute, but if they do, it will be a non-issue for AMD. Antitrust law is very real, and Rambus knows it.

To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/6/2000 10:46:13 PM
From: Chung Lee	Respond to of 275872

Kahs, In which case AMD stock gets dumped big-time. May explain why smart money is not backing the truck up at these prices. This post not related to Rambus. Does anyone know how much margin debt is out there?

To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/7/2000 8:21:30 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, If Rambus chose to sue AMD and Transmeta (but not Intel), there would be an anti-trust uproar like we have never experienced. Transmeta is also a Wall Street darling. Having said that, it would not surprise me if Rambus went ahead and did just that. Their suit against Sega/Hitachi was crafted to help out Sony/PS2. Rambus was able to get away with it because they were manipulating Japanese companies, but a similar attempt to manipulate the American marketplace will not be taken lightly by the Feds. Rambus and Intel are walking on thin ice. Scumbria