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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: budweeder who wrote (13076)	10/7/2000 8:21:50 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Bud and Don, It sounds like you Warehouses are having a big inventory build-up! Just as long as your S&L divisions are still solvent, I guess there's no reason not to do some buying. It's interesting that the S&P500 2X fund hasn't exhausted its cash while the N-100 2X fund has. Overall, my cash reserves in Veale's S&L division are sitting at a comfy 24% of total value. However, there's a few inventory items at the Warehouse that have sparse or negative cash positions. However, those have been in that position for some time. I really was surprised that with all the negative activity in the last few weeks that I've not had much buying. Just a nibble here and there. Only my alumni account has been buying much (what the heck, it's not MY money!). The gloom will lift one of these days and the Talking Heads will tell us they knew it all the time. execpc.com I wonder if October is really a bad market month whether it will affect the Presidential Election and in what way? In 1998 the market performance in Sept. was similar to this year and there was an amazingly rapid snap back rally starting about mid October. I don't know if it will happen again or not. That news event about the huge margin call on WCOM's CEO was amazing. It appears from the one news item I read that he was buying shares of his own company's stock. Well, that shows some faith! Maybe he did it back when the big merger with MCI was still viable. We broke through the FREEZE mark overnight here in SE Wisconsin. It was 31degF when I got up at 6AM. The sky is clear and the sun's rising over Lake Michigan as I type. The top of the trees in my back yard are just being lit by the rising sun. I think I like being on the Western Shore as I'm a morning person and enjoy the sunrise. When I walk to work in the winter sunrise through the mist that rises off the Big Lake is a spectacular site. I'll have to see if I can capture it photographically for a future newsletter. Best regards, Fraser Knuttshoff

To: budweeder who wrote (13076)	10/7/2000 2:11:07 PM
From: LemonHead	Respond to of 18928

Hi Bud, I thought it would be appropriate to bring out a post of mine from earlier this year. Message 13052324 From Tom: Take a look at Landis's funds and wherever else you have some fund money. See what the price/share drop was during the August to October down-turn in 1998. This will let you gauge whether you have enough cash reserve to "buy to the bottom." Response from me: This may not be exactly right, but it's the best that I could dig up. Last Bear Market: 07/31/98 thru 10/08/98 TLFQX - Leaders Fund 07/31 $13.48 10/08 $ 9.81 Loss ($ 3.67) or 27.2% Number of trading days = 49 Per Cent average loss per day = .56% Recovery Time 10/08 $9.81 10/26 $13.62 Gain $ 3.81 or 38.8% Number of trading days = 12 Per Cent average Gain per day = 3.23% Total Days of cycle = 61 Reasonable Profit or 20%+ gain from 07/31 was established on 12/04. 07/31 $13.48 12/04 $17.03 Gain $ 3.55 or 26.3% Total Days = 89 Per Cent average Gain per day = .30% TVFQX - Value Fund 07/31 $26.44 10/08 $17.51 Loss ($ 8.93) or 33.8% Number of trading days = 49 Per Cent average loss per day = .69% Recovery Time 10/08 $17.51 11/04 $26.61 Gain $ 9.10 or 52% Number of trading days = 19 Per Cent average Gain per day = 2.74% Total Days of cycle = 68 Reasonable Profit or 20%+ gain from 07/31 was established on 01/05/99. 07/31 $26.44 01/05 $33.07 Gain $ 6.63 or 25% Total Days = 109 Per Cent average Gain per day = .23% What kind of conclusion can one derive from this data? A. The funds were well managed during the storm. B. They recovered their losses in less than half the time. C. They achieved 20%+ gains from 07/31 to 01/05/99. D. Extremely profitable had you purchased the week of 10/08. E. TLFQX gained 74% by 12/04 and TVFQX 89% by 01/05/99. I don't know but it appears the risk is not that high at this point and time and a few more 'Vealies' may be in the pipe line. FWIW If I get the time I will compare this to the spring activity. Keith