Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IVAN1 who wrote (112732)	10/7/2000 3:44:39 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Ivan1 - Re: "So what are the thread's thoughts about how long it might take to get back to the high? Has intel understood the changes in time? diversified into other areas effectively? executed correctly? is the future bright?" The answers to your questions are: 1 Nobody knows 2.Yes 3. Too early to tell 4. No 5. Yes. Intel's execution for the past 18 months has sucked in most cases - but not all. The high profile areas - fast Desktop CPUs - have had enormous glitches, while other areas - Server/Xeon CPUs and notebook CPUs, have done incredibly well - as have the newer StrongARM-Xscale CPUs. For the future, you need only predict what the technology world will need in the future and assess Intel's ability to be a leader in those areas - in the future. My assessment is that Intel will eventually (?) pull out of its nosedive in DesktoP CPUs, re-assert itself in Server CPUs with Foster/Xeons and IA64 products, and become a major force in handheld devices and wireless communications via their XScale development. In the areas of Internet infrastructure, Intel's burgeoning line of NetStructure hardware is making them a growing force in this rapidly high growth segment. Further, Intels $6 Billion year 2000 capital expenditures on new wafer fabs and equipment will propel it into manufacturing hegemony - CPUs, Flash, Chip Sets, Wireless & Communications ICS, XScale CPUsa and support chips - over the next 3 years, adding enormous "fire-power" to see it through its current design weaknesses - and provide tremendous upside prospects for growth in the next "up cycle" for technology growth. Paul

To: IVAN1 who wrote (112732)	10/7/2000 6:55:30 PM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

Hi Ivan and Thread, RE: "Where Intel stock price is going" Short-term, I don't know. I'm not a trader. Long-term, I believe it is well-positioned to go up RE: " where Intel may be headed (dare I say it) price-wise in the months and years ahead." Possibly a split at the end of next year or the following year. RE: "I bought a nice chunck of Intc 11 years ago and through thick and thin held tight" When you bought it back then, maybe you felt PCs would be everywhere? I'm buying INTC now because I feel Intel-based servers could be everywhere in the business sector. I believe there is lots of room to grow in this particular market segment. RE: "but I failed to unload any at the top" This can happen when one is a LT investor, which I am too. RE: "and am now cut in half" The drop certainly was more than the usual 25% drop. But is INTC down ytd? INTC had drastically risen well-above its historical highs (most of the market did too). It seemed like the price had gotten ahead of itself. And the faulty launches didn't help either. RE: "though still enormously ahead." Or, even when measured by Nasdaq's ytd. RE: "The exact same thing has happened to me with MSFT." I hear you on that one. MSFT makes up 100% of my other 401k. But fortunately, it's been that way for many years. RE: "So what are the thread's thoughts about how long it might take to get back to the high?" Probably another split at the end of next year or the year after. RE: "Has intel understood the changes in time?" Yes, they've been spending in the new direction for many years now. Just not something that seems to be a topic on this thread. However, I think the recent stock drop brings home some of the pain (focus/resource allocations away from old biz to new biz) in this product transition. RE: "diversified into other areas effectively?" I feel comfortable with their approach in the Server market, and feel this higher margin business has excellent potential in the future. RE: "executed correctly?" During last Spring's CC, I was a bit concerned that Paul O did not appear to give serious consideration when answering a question from an analyst regarding the faulty launches back then. The answer he gave was a punt, or possibly what John Fowler might call, "the opposite of paranoid." I think he missed an opportunity to clarify things with us investors. So, I hope he demonstrates he is more concerned (or more paranoid?) this time around and provides a well-thought answer. RE: "is the future bright?" Yes, I believe it is. I'm a big believer in Intel. However, I would not be surprised to see some continuation of execution problems in the old CPU desktop business. It appears Intel is stretching its resources and is struggling with project management/communication issues that are becoming visible in the launch phase. I think this potential issue could be symptomatic of a growing company (and probably compounded by a transitioning company), but fixable, if addressed. Think about it -- Andy Grove used to be the single person in charge of products back then (I believe?). But this was back when they only had a couple of desktop products, right? But how many do they have now? A lot more, right? I think it's impossible for one person to keep in control of all of these products - there has to be several people. Thus, it appears that Intel's top executives are struggling with managing this layer - I think that Albert Yu (who was described as a controller personality type) may have been excellent at managing one product. I don't know if this applies, but broadly speaking, sometimes controllers aren't the best at managing multiple projects, because you can't have complete control - you have to let go of control in order to be effective (i.e. empowerment) and instead, focus more on processes, communication and culture. When you manage a lot of product lines, you are really managing people and processes at this point, not just a product line. So, it could be that Intel's biggest threat is its culture. However, it appears Intel is addressing this issue. RE: "Or has the market told us (correctly?) that we are an old tech dinosaur with a low stock price and we're going to have to live with it for a long, long time." I don't consider 4% penetration in the Server market an old tech dinosaur, especially when you consider the Internet infrastructure needed to support this. I do believe the desktop market will eventually (sometime in the future) become like the auto industry of the 80s, but unlike the auto industry, Intel has proven to be aggressive and adept at changing its markets in the past (e.g. 1980's). RE: "but I must say, this rocked my world." I believe it was INTC's largest drop in its history, so that's not surprising. I personally felt like a 2x4 bumped me in the head. I believe Bryant could have done a tad better job on the PR side of this, by announcing it earlier. RE: "Are good times ahead? Sooner? Later? Never?" I definitely think good times are ahead. The year 2000 was a pretty yucky year for the product launches. At least 2001 looks to be better positioned product-wise. But I tend to agree with Gary, that the bigger potential for concern might be the Euro. RE: "Best to all" Thank you. You too. Regards, Amy J