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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (32891)	10/7/2000 4:48:32 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

INTC has not really made any architectural changes of significance that were not quickly answered by AMD. In the earlier years, it seemed to me that AMD was being a classic chimp, but as you say, they seem to have gotten so good at it, that in recent years they have been pushing INTC pretty hard. INTC has stated that the 64bit architecture will not support native 32bit execution. It will be emulated, which means it will not perform well. In the meantime, AMD has stated its intent to maintain 32bit native mode execution in its 64bit architecture. I find this difference very interesting. If it turns out that AMDs choice allows people to stay within the x86 architecture and keep climbing to higher and higher levels of performance, I can imagine this being a pretty viable choice while INTC basically needs to create a new value chain behind its new architecture and, as you say, there are some other folks who are already squating in the 64 bit space quite firmly. What do we call it when a gorilla stops making the product that made them a gorilla and lets the former chimp take over the product and continue to move it forward? Abdication?

To: DownSouth who wrote (32891)	10/8/2000 12:11:59 AM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Intel is a King , of the old fashioned powerful type, not today's constitutional monarchs It looked like a gorilla because AMD was so weak and unable to execute well. Now that AMD has finally started to get it's act together, we can see that the silverback was really just a big man with graying hair under his crown. A lot of brand new applications demanding the supposed speed of 64 bit will have to appear for it to form full tornado with a mass market. With my newer 32 bit computers I find that I seldom have to spend more than a few seconds waiting ., As computers become a commodity, competition inevitably revolves around price . I perceive 2 possible markets - a 32bit mass commodity market and a 64bit technology that might be able to ignite bowling alleys and niches but have little chance at a true mass market tornado at the consumer level because the space is full.There may be more opportunities at the business level. Helping 64bit might be their break from the past residual DOS and creaky x86 code - maybe they can get Microsoft to produce truly customer friendly reliable software

To: DownSouth who wrote (32891)	10/8/2000 10:22:54 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

DownSouth, << LB convinced me some time ago that INTC is not a Gorilla. I have treated it like a King since >> LB has convinced me of several things, but not that one. I can not for the life of me see how INTC went from a gorilla to king. There has been no discontinuous innovation to replace theirs in the arena we they achieved the gorilla advantage and participated in recurring tornados (32-bit desktop CPU and motherboard). The Network Appliance threat has not yet materialized and AMD's recent achievements make AMD (finally) a very successful monkey, rather then sometime Chimp, IMO. Most certainly we are nearing the end of the latest tornado, and experiencing the "End-of Tornado Corrections" described on page 121 of the RFM, and particularly we are seeing the reaction to a downside surprise (or in this case a warning of same) that results in "lower returns and reduction of CAP". The end of a tornado does not make a gorilla a king. It may be time to start looking at a new tornado. It may be time to evaluate whether or not to hold INTC, relative to where they are in the TALC, and to what degree their CAP has been reduced. Regardless, IMO, INTC is still enjoying the benefits that accrue a gorilla on Main Street and I think the rumors of the death of this silverback are exaggerated. I sold INTC last fall and bought back this spring. I did sell because I though it was no longer a gorilla, but because over a 5 year period its annual return was lower than the majority of Gorillas and Kings in my portfolio. I bought back because I thought it had a better chance of withstanding the bearish conditions the NAZ was (still is)exhibiting than a few of the shiny pebbles I was playing with. Immediately upon hearing the earnings warning I considered selling. but decided to hold. If I thought it should be categorized a king I would have sold. "Semiconductors" comprise 10% of my portfolio collectively. I hold INTC, SNDK, and PMCS, in roughly equal amounts. Individually, these stocks are the smallest holdings of the 10 stocks that comprise my portfolio. - Eric -