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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (5424)	10/8/2000 6:34:24 PM
From: Susan Saline	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

ok .... as you have 100% win win so far you are an exception to the rule .... but ... I had no one participant in mind when I wrote that but this is a "GROUP" venture so do you feel that way about ALL of our holdings? All are holds ... do or die? I do not mean to offend anyone ... with my posts ... about stop losses and support ... if it's a bad idea ... well ... accept my apologies

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (5424)	10/8/2000 6:55:06 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 11568

I'd like to use FNV as an example and add to Kelvin's comments. I own FNV from 6 9/16 and didn't bail when it traded below my TA stop point at 6 1/8. Why? Well, here's my thinking. First, I echo Ron's comments on the FA. There's no good reason for the stock to be trading this low. It's not like they are a speculative dot com with no earnings and no dividend. One explanation for it breaking support is institutions pulling their bids during the weak market on Friday to let it fall so they could buy it cheaper. Or, maybe we will find out in a few months that the fundamentals justify where the stock is trading. I don't think so, and just think that fear is at or near an extreme in many stocks, including FNV. When a stock falls below where I perceive support (6 1/4 in FNV's case), I think the odds increase that it will trade lower. How much lower, nobody knows. I generally look for the next support level, but since FNV is trading at a 10 year low I don't know what that is. When that happens, you don't know where your risk is and it can be scary. The low at 5 1/2 the other day could be the low for the next decade or it might go lower. I use TA to find risk points, and when a stock breaks support and makes a 10 year low, I don't know where the next risk point is. That doesn't mean that I will bail on it, but it means that the TA has broken down and I don't know what my risk is. Actually in the case of FNV, the risk is only about 5 points. <g> Also as Kelvin said, if I sell it when do I buy it back? In this case, I'm going to be stubborn and second guess the TA and go with the FA because I think there is extreme fear in the market. Maybe I'll be right and maybe I'll be wrong. I am more inclined to do this with a $5 stock than a $50 stock simply because I think the $50 stock has more downside risk. Incidentally, BVSN looks like a decent buy between 13 1/2 and 15 1/2 if it gets there. The Nasdaq has support between 3050 and 3300 and I'd be willing to bet that we are near a trading rally. If the Nasdaq falls to that level, maybe BVSN will trade into that range. The DJIA has support between 10000 and 10200. I think the major averages will trade sideways for a while. I don't think that we are in for a huge bear market--at least not yet.