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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (28703)	10/10/2000 11:39:25 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 67830

Optical Correction : It has been a tough couple of weeks for most stocks in the once-hot optical sector. And while they are recovering some lost ground today, more tough times probably lie ahead. As our series on the Photonic Revolution has made clear, we are very much believers in the long-term prospects for the optical sector. But we have also cautioned that valuations are extreme due to the imbalance between supply and demand. That imbalance is slowly being addressed by a string of high-profile optical IPOs: Corvis (CORV), Avici (AVCI), Cosine (COSN), and Oplink (OPLK). Many more have now filed for IPOs, including Anda Networks, OMM, Luminent, Optical Comm Pdts, and Unisphere. Even without any other bad news in the optical sector, the increasing number of public companies competing for investors' dollars would be a problem for current valuations. But two other key issues also cause us to question current valuations. First, competition is intensifying at a dramatic clip. Venture capital money has abandoned the dot-com sector after over-investing there, and is now flooding the optical sector. We have been keeping a list of private companies competing in the optical sector and of the VC money they have received. We can add several companies and tens if not hundreds of millions a dollar each day to this list. It is simply staggering to see the amount of money being invested in the sector. The market opportunity is big, but it's not that big. As with the Internet sector, there will be more losers than winners. The second factor giving us pause is the increasing number of problems being experienced by telecom service providers. There are failures, such as iaxis, potential failures, such as ICG (ICGX), and companies whose stock prices are suffering, such as WCOM, T, and just about every other service provider. Service providers are the customers of the optical companies. Quite simply put, you cannot see your customers suffer without suffering yourself. This is not doomsday, as we still see strong growth in optical sales, but -- on the margin -- the prospects for the sector have dimmed just a bit. Because we see a bright future for optical, we will continue to research and write about the players. But we are in no hurry to recommend investments, as it seems very unlikely that these stocks will get away from you. The better strategy is to identify the strongest players and the price at which the valuation looks reasonable. Then wait for the market to bring that price to you -- it might well happen. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com

To: Clint E. who wrote (28703)	10/10/2000 12:06:51 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 67830

Dow 10581.74 +13.31 (+0.13%) Nasdaq 3288.47 -67.09 (-2.00%) S&P 500 1396.40 -5.63 (-0.40%) 30-Yr Bond 5.848% +0.003 NYSE Volume 449,022,000 Nasdaq Volume 801,081,000 Remaining strong stocks finally starting to break. AMCC, TXCC breaking down below previous supports. Looking for bounce at 100 day EMA. JNPR and GALT still holding up for now. Pessimism is final taking over the last of the hold outs. RETAIL 8 -0.7% Edit Delete Compare SOFTWARE1 13 -4.7% Edit Delete Compare DSL 6 -4.4% Edit Delete Compare DWDM 13 -4.6% Edit Delete Compare Financials1 7 -2.0% Edit Delete Compare Carriers1 6 +0.7% Edit Delete Compare Telecom Construction1 5 +0.8% Edit Delete Compare networkers1 5 +0.2% Edit Delete Compare Contract Manufacturers 5 -5.1% Edit Delete Compare Telecom Equipment 18 -1.5% Edit Delete Compare Tier 2, D-WDM 15 -3.1% Edit Delete Compare Broadband Cable 1 8 -1.3% Edit Delete Compare DOW 10 +0.7% Edit Delete Compare XML 15 +2.6% Edit Delete Compare Internet Security 20 -2.0% Edit Delete Compare Supercoductors 5 -5.6% Edit Delete Compare Bull Sector-optical 84 -2.7% Edit Delete Compare Satellite Stocks1 3 -1.2% Edit Delete Compare Strong Stocks March 16 Correction 22 -4.4% Edit Delete Compare Biotechs 9 +2.0% Edit Delete Compare CHIP EQUIPMENT 13 -7.4% Edit Delete Compare CHIPS1 22 -10.3% Edit Delete Compare MEMS 2 +1.0% Edit Delete Compare April 11 strong stocks1 16 -3.8% Edit Delete Compare Day Traders 12 -1.5% Edit Delete Compare Genomics 9 +2.8% Edit Delete Compare Incubators 8 -0.6% Edit Delete Compare Internet Sector 14 -3.1% Edit Delete Compare Flat Panel Displays 4 -3.6% Edit Delete Compare E-Gaming stocks 4 -0.7% Edit Delete Compare Stocks pulling back on below avg vol 42 -3.1% Edit Delete Compare Bottoming List 10 -4.7% Edit Delete Compare Clint's Strong Stocks Sept Selloff 23 -4.1% Edit Delete Compare Symbol Price Change Volume Bid/Ask Day Range ADCT 27.88 0.88 (+3.24%) 5,244,000 27.88 - 27.81 27.19 - 28.25 ADTN 43.00 -0.75 (-1.71%) 15,900 42.38 - 43.12 41.06 - 44.44 AFCI 32.88 -4.75 (-12.62%) 1,623,100 32.75 - 33.00 32.56 - 37.38 ALA 65.44 1.19 (+1.85%) 584,800 64.06 - 65.75 AMAT 50.00 -5.75 (-10.31%) 14,202,600 50.00 - 50.00 49.88 - 54.44 AMCC 166.75 -18.69 (-10.08%) 8,158,000 166.75 - 167.00 164.38 - 184.50 ANAD 18.00 -1.00 (-5.26%) 135,100 18.12 - 18.19 18.00 - 19.12 ANDW 22.06 -1.38 (-5.87%) 172,700 22.06 - 22.31 22.00 - 23.50 ANN 32.44 -2.31 (-6.65%) 163,700 32.44 - 34.75 AOL 57.96 0.86 (+1.51%) 4,709,800 56.38 - 58.35 APAT 9.62 0.56 (+6.21%) 9,800 9.50 - 9.62 9.03 - 9.81 ASYS 8.97 -1.03 (-10.31%) 65,000 8.81 - 8.97 8.75 - 10.00 AVNX 86.19 -5.75 (-6.25%) 426,700 85.75 - 86.38 85.81 - 94.31 AXP 56.06 -0.56 (-0.99%) 1,906,300 56.06 - 56.94 BKB 43.38 0.00 (+0.00%) 100 41.44 - 44.12 BKHM 41.38 1.12 (+2.80%) 267,000 41.38 - 41.44 41.00 - 41.75 BRCM 216.44 -14.59 (-6.32%) 2,372,300 216.56 - 216.44 216.38 - 230.12 CIEN 107.31 -3.00 (-2.72%) 5,573,200 107.38 - 107.50 107.00 - 117.25 CMGI 22.31 0.19 (+0.85%) 3,566,100 22.31 - 22.38 21.69 - 23.50 CMTN 31.12 -1.12 (-3.49%) 1,343,300 31.12 - 31.12 30.75 - 34.50 CNXT 34.62 -2.56 (-6.89%) 1,586,000 34.56 - 34.62 34.25 - 37.12 COSN 35.69 1.56 (+4.58%) 221,600 35.62 - 36.12 33.50 - 38.50 COVD 10.81 -0.69 (-5.98%) 2,462,200 10.75 - 10.81 10.69 - 11.50 CPWR 6.75 0.06 (+0.93%) 1,432,600 6.75 - 6.75 6.50 - 7.09 CS 27.38 0.75 (+2.82%) 767,500 27.06 - 28.25 CSCO 53.00 -0.69 (-1.28%) 23,597,400 53.06 - 53.06 52.44 - 54.38 CYMI 24.75 -1.12 (-4.35%) 105,100 24.69 - 24.75 23.75 - 25.50 DCLK 25.31 0.25 (+1.00%) 2,536,500 25.38 - 25.38 24.75 - 26.44 DIS 41.56 0.62 (+1.53%) 2,254,400 41.12 - 41.94 DITC 30.88 -2.94 (-8.69%) 163,000 30.62 - 30.81 30.56 - 33.31 DK 5.69 0.19 (+3.41%) 2,700 5.50 - 5.69 EFII 18.75 -0.75 (-3.85%) 645,300 18.69 - 18.75 18.69 - 19.50 EXDS 42.75 -1.75 (-3.93%) 2,150,800 42.62 - 42.69 42.12 - 46.25 FDRY 64.44 1.44 (+2.28%) 1,060,800 64.12 - 64.38 60.88 - 66.50 FDX 43.38 1.58 (+3.78%) 526,700 41.40 - 43.62 FFIV 31.56 -0.44 (-1.37%) 159,000 31.25 - 31.56 31.25 - 33.62 GALT 28.75 -3.50 (-10.85%) 305,800 28.75 - 28.81 28.75 - 31.12 GBLX 25.25 -0.75 (-2.88%) 4,304,600 25.19 - 25.25 25.06 - 26.00 GE 58.75 0.25 (+0.43%) 4,111,300 58.31 - 59.19 GLW 87.62 -5.38 (-5.78%) 3,501,200 86.00 - 92.50 GPS 21.00 -0.31 (-1.47%) 975,900 20.88 - 21.38 HEII 13.00 -0.56 (-4.15%) 900 13.12 - 13.50 12.75 - 13.25 HIFN 58.88 0.12 (+0.21%) 19,400 58.88 - 59.06 58.75 - 59.75 HIV 5.50 0.00 (+0.00%) IBI 20.81 -0.25 (-1.19%) 51,300 20.69 - 21.00 INKT 93.12 -3.38 (-3.50%) 1,243,200 93.38 - 93.12 92.25 - 102.38 INTC 38.50 -0.56 (-1.44%) 26,731,800 38.50 - 38.50 38.25 - 40.19 IOM 4.76 -0.04 (-0.83%) 575,700 4.75 - 4.85 ITWO 164.53 -8.47 (-4.90%) 2,080,500 164.50 - 164.56 164.50 - 175.25 JBL 42.75 -4.12 (-8.80%) 1,234,500 42.25 - 45.88 JDSU 90.03 -3.53 (-3.77%) 8,587,500 90.00 - 90.12 90.00 - 95.09 JNJ 94.00 2.69 (+2.94%) 1,083,100 91.56 - 94.25 JNPR 202.25 2.69 (+1.35%) 5,250,700 202.25 - 202.62 196.00 - 211.00 KEA 14.65 -0.06 (-0.41%) 15,400 14.65 - 14.98 LU 32.38 0.06 (+0.19%) 5,989,100 32.00 - 33.00 MER 57.06 -2.25 (-3.79%) 2,287,200 56.88 - 59.69 MERQ 133.25 -11.91 (-8.20%) 725,200 133.50 - 133.31 133.25 - 144.50 MOT L 25.88 -1.12 (-4.17%) 9,142,900 25.75 - 29.56 MRVC 46.38 -1.50 (-3.13%) 660,400 46.44 - 46.69 46.25 - 50.38 MRVL 79.50 -0.25 (-0.31%) 131,300 79.62 - 80.00 79.50 - 82.62 MSFT 54.75 0.56 (+1.04%) 14,488,700 54.81 - 54.88 53.81 - 55.38 MTZ 29.44 -0.19 (-0.63%) 74,800 29.06 - 29.75 MWD 77.56 -5.69 (-6.83%) 3,662,800 77.56 - 83.00 NEWP 136.12 -13.25 (-8.87%) 1,191,800 136.06 - 136.50 135.12 - 156.25 NT 64.69 1.44 (+2.27%) 8,786,800 63.69 - 66.50 NTBK 9.56 -0.75 (-7.27%) 94,900 9.50 - 9.72 9.50 - 10.03 NTBK 9.56 -0.75 (-7.27%) 94,900 9.50 - 9.72 9.50 - 10.03 NUFO 65.88 -2.88 (-4.18%) 132,400 65.75 - 65.81 65.88 - 70.50 NVLS 42.00 -5.19 (-10.99%) 2,235,700 42.00 - 42.06 42.00 - 46.62 ONIS 61.50 0.00 (+0.00%) 383,300 61.38 - 61.50 59.00 - 64.62 PHCM 113.56 5.69 (+5.27%) 1,828,300 113.56 - 113.62 103.00 - 115.75 PHTN 30.50 -0.69 (-2.20%) 23,400 30.25 - 30.50 30.00 - 31.03 PMCS 171.25 -18.81 (-9.90%) 6,358,600 171.00 - 171.00 169.50 - 183.94 PSFT 33.50 -0.31 (-0.92%) 1,678,000 33.50 - 33.69 32.88 - 35.06 PUMA 14.44 -0.38 (-2.53%) 299,100 14.44 - 14.50 14.31 - 15.34 QCOM 82.62 3.25 (+4.09%) 10,512,500 82.56 - 82.62 79.88 - 83.88 QWST 43.00 0.00 (+0.00%) 42.94 - 43.00 RBAK 131.00 0.44 (+0.34%) 2,256,600 131.00 - 131.06 129.62 - 137.00 RFMD 27.12 -1.62 (-5.65%) 2,919,800 27.06 - 27.19 27.00 - 28.50 RHAT 14.56 0.25 (+1.75%) 460,300 14.56 - 14.69 14.12 - 15.06 RMBS 68.38 -3.00 (-4.20%) 2,012,500 68.38 - 68.44 67.06 - 70.50 RNWK 33.06 -0.38 (-1.12%) 458,600 33.06 - 33.12 32.50 - 35.25 SCH 29.69 0.56 (+1.93%) 3,136,600 29.56 - 31.50 SCMR 80.56 -6.44 (-7.40%) 5,277,200 80.62 - 80.69 80.50 - 93.00 SDLI 298.50 -10.94 (-3.53%) 2,088,000 298.25 - 298.50 298.00 - 313.50 SFTBF 74.00 0.00 (+0.00%) SHOO 7.38 0.06 (+0.85%) 10,000 7.38 - 7.44 7.25 - 7.84 SPLI 48.06 -0.94 (-1.91%) 900 48.06 - 48.31 47.88 - 48.06 SUNW 104.94 -1.88 (-1.76%) 8,734,400 104.88 - 105.00 103.31 - 108.00 SVGI 32.81 -2.25 (-6.42%) 207,700 32.75 - 32.81 32.81 - 34.75 TER 31.00 -1.69 (-5.16%) 1,193,400 30.75 - 33.12 TLAB 48.31 0.12 (+0.26%) 815,100 48.31 - 48.38 48.19 - 49.75 UNFY 1.50 0.00 (+0.00%) 3.88 - 3.94 UTEK 15.44 0.62 (+4.22%) 18,200 15.44 - 15.50 14.62 - 15.62 VARL 12.00 0.00 (+0.00%) 12.00 - 10.00 VERT 25.56 -0.12 (-0.49%) 1,658,800 25.44 - 25.56 25.25 - 28.22 VTSS 76.69 -15.56 (-16.87%) 4,288,200 76.69 - 76.75 76.56 - 88.88 WCAP 7.94 -0.66 (-7.64%) 4,200 7.94 - 8.19 7.94 - 8.44 WIND 39.12 -2.19 (-5.30%) 114,000 39.12 - 39.12 39.06 - 41.62 YHOO 84.12 -1.62 (-1.90%) 5,870,900 84.12 - 84.25 83.56 - 88.75