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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (38054)	10/10/2000 3:29:32 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Kirk, I would probably say that outside of AMAT and KLAC, short interest will definitely play a role, especially in LRCX as you pointed out. Should be interesting this Thursday- I would hate to see what would happen if they missed at this point. BK

To: Kirk © who wrote (38054)	10/10/2000 3:31:36 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

Kirk, there are a TON of put positions, though a not as impressive short position, fwiw. Its a done deal that "short covering" could fuel an oversold bounce. Still, a bounce is not what I am looking for. We simply need to be right that this cycle is not over. I bought amat today at 49.875 Frankly, my opinion is that this cycle will look different, holding a plateau longer rather than dropping back into the toilet. We should see a sustained move back above 80 if I am right, but be back down in a year or two before the cycle ends. This is total speculation on my part. I admit I haven't a clue, just ask my broker this year.

To: Kirk © who wrote (38054)	10/10/2000 3:38:58 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: I do not think this (shorts) is a variable: I agree. The market cap is too big for that. The stock is going down because the cycle-timers, who were long the stock, are giving up on it. Until the market is reassured that the cycle is not over (or that it has bottomed), the stocks will keep declining. I'm not sure what news would be needed to reassure the market. That's the interesting question: what does the market need to hear from Micron or Intel or TI, to stop the semi-equip slide? We have now had enough earnings warnings, from the semis and semi-equips, that the problem is not specific to any one company. I still haven't decided whether it is all just PC-specific. If this is just a dip in the upcyle, it is the biggest one ever.