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To: Amy J who wrote (113064)	10/10/2000 4:12:02 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Amy & Tony - Re: "Carrying it further, makes it sound like maybe Intel's aggressive 6 billion dollar fab/assembly expansion plans might not all be needed. " Elmer and Paul are much better at figuring this stuff out than me, but making estimated calculations from the flash market report just posted the other day, that could be about 3 new fabs just for flash, right? " Intel pulled back its capital expansion plans in late 1997 in view of the impending Asian financial crisis (which became a world wide crisis by October 1998). Because of this, they were caught flat-footed by the rather fast recovery of the world wide markets in mid-1999, and possibly some Y2K pre-purchasing - and were caught in a situation where demand for their products couldn't be met by their then-existing wafer fabs. Keep in mind - Intel's stock would have been SLAUGHTERED in 1997/1998 (even worse than they were)for adding wafer fabs in that time frame by the Tom Kurlaks and Joe Oshas of the world (note - Osha is now FAULTING INTEL for not investing in plant capacity expansion in 1997/1998). What we need to keep in mind is the following: Given - Semiconductor demand is - and will always be - CYCLICAL. Given - Wafer fabs take 1 1/2 to 2 years (give or take) to be designed, built, and brought on line. Hence, the opportune (?) time for building these fabs is right before a downturn !!! By "gutting it out", and absorbing the capex expenses, only then can a company like Intel have the new, additional capacity come on-line in time for the next UPTURN in the semiconductor demand cycle. AMD's Dresden plant is a fine - albeit a confused and delayed - example. AMD kept the development of Dresdden/Fab 30 going through 2 downturns - and it came on stream in time to meet this year's demand. Paul

To: Amy J who wrote (113064)	10/11/2000 2:37:45 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

Thread, Paul, Tony, "Demand is white-hot...." Here are some newsworthy quotes on demand: Intel CEO calls recent stock slide an overreaction zdii.com October 11, 2000 2:08pm By Larry Dignan ZDII Intel CEO Craig Barrett said Wednesday that he's not worried about semiconductor demand [...] Barrett, speaking at the Exchange eBusiness Summit in San Francisco, said the market was "overreacting" [...] "Demand is white-hot in three critical segments -- chips for big servers, chips to power the explosion in Internet access devices and chips in the networking equipment that ties everything together," CEO Lou Gerstner said in a release Tuesday. Regards, Amy J

To: Amy J who wrote (113064)	10/11/2000 3:57:58 PM
From: Thotdoc	Respond to of 186894

The market is being shook out, what we see before us i sa buying opportunity. Check Thompson.net to see the actual buying and selling. Big money is buying 1-7MM shares at a time at these prices. The chicken littles are forgetting that tommorrow actually exists, and that the internet and computers of various kinds that will be attached to the net are in their infancy. I love to hear people say that the net is mature. The old supply and demend based on PC's is interesting, but irrelevant over the long haul. Regards, G