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Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (385)	10/11/2000 9:07:58 AM
From: wmwmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

Can you explain what VIX represents and what level is associated with a bottom? Thanks.

To: robert b furman who wrote (385)	10/11/2000 9:33:08 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 4583

<As contrary to the thought's of the lems and to parphrase one of your favorite sayings - THIS IS TIME TO BET THE FARM!> I am not and have not suggested anyone bet the farm! Quite the contrary. Go to my web page and you will see that I am waiting for quite a different scenario... SCY to get above 1.5 BEFORE I move my long-term investments back to equity & mutual funds. IMHO, this is an evolving sell-off and I think the worst is yet to come... this is the bk BEFORE the BK!!! Which is somewhat like what you are saying about the second wave of selling... <What has eluded me is the clear thought process to trade frequently like you and GZ seem so adept at.> I only trade pin money for the very short term and I am not all that good at it because I am usually too early in my predictions... meaning I think something will happen tomorrow and it happens two weeks or so from now. I expected HM to get below 5... it did but a month after my options expired! The only reason I have been fortunate in my predictions over the past month or so is that I spend countless hours looking at the indicators I hold important to the forecast process. And trying to make sense of them. I would love to believe I have this forecast down pat... but I know I don't! All I have is some indicators, which if I can make some sense out of them, will give me some idea some of the time of what Mr. Market will do. Knowing that, managing money and limiting risk... you can do quite well. IMHO if you start thinking about this "blood in the street" thing, instead of what your "trusted" indicators are telling you, you will end up a very poor person without any farm at all! The idea is making money, not being right! If you can do both, great. But if you can only do one, let's hope it is make money??? And from a strategy standpoint, I still do believe it is better to be in interst bearing cash equivalents than buying into the markets at this point. I want to see how it shakes out first. After all, 1929 - 1950 was a long, long time to recover your capital. And unless you are 30-40 years from retirement, I think that is a risk I would NOT want to take! BWDIK?

To: robert b furman who wrote (385)	10/11/2000 9:34:14 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

<As contrary to the thought's of the lems and to parphrase one of your favorite sayings - THIS IS TIME TO BET THE FARM!> I am not and have not suggested anyone bet the farm! Quite the contrary. Go to my web page and you will see that I am waiting for quite a different scenario... SCY to get above 1.5 BEFORE I move my long-term investments back to equity & mutual funds. mynvo.com IMHO, this is an evolving sell-off and I think the worst is yet to come... this is the bk BEFORE the BK!!! Which is somewhat like what you are saying about the second wave of selling... <What has eluded me is the clear thought process to trade frequently like you and GZ seem so adept at.> I only trade pin money for the very short term and I am not all that good at it because I am usually too early in my predictions... meaning I think something will happen tomorrow and it happens two weeks or so from now. I expected HM to get below 5... it did but a month after my options expired! The only reason I have been fortunate in my predictions over the past month or so is that I spend countless hours looking at the indicators I hold important to the forecast process. And trying to make sense of them. I would love to believe I have this forecast down pat... but I know I don't! All I have is some indicators, which if I can make some sense out of them, will give me some idea some of the time of what Mr. Market will do. Knowing that, managing money and limiting risk... you can do quite well. IMHO if you start thinking about this "blood in the street" thing, instead of what your "trusted" indicators are telling you, you will end up a very poor person without any farm at all! The idea is making money, not being right! If you can do both, great. But if you can only do one, let's hope it is make money??? And from a strategy standpoint, I still do believe it is better to be in interst bearing cash equivalents than buying into the markets at this point. I want to see how it shakes out first. After all, 1929 - 1950 was a long, long time to recover your capital. And unless you are 30-40 years from retirement, I think that is a risk I would NOT want to take! BWDIK?