Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Al Gore vs George Bush: the moderate's perspective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2209)	10/12/2000 12:39:39 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10042

China is a growing economy with limited oil reserves. They need oil and they are competing with the west to obtain it. This is very true, and very much to our advantage. We should do everything possible to encourage the Chinese to buy oil in the Middle East, and to encourage our allies in the Middle East to sell oil to China. Why? Oil can get from the Middle East to China only by tanker or by a very long and very vulnerable pipeline. Either would be very easy for us to interdict, giving us an effective low-cost low-risk card to play in any confrontation over Taiwan. Now should the Chinese lend their political and military support to the Arab oil producers, in a scenario where the Arabs use oil as a weapon to isolate Israel from the US, it will make things VERY TRICKY for US policy makers. I still don't see what effective political or military support the Chinese could lend. I agree that both the Palestinians and the Israelis are being unnecessarily provocative and intransigent, and that there will probably be a great deal of unpleasantness happening there. But even if the Israelis stomp the Palestinians, I don't see the other Arab states jumping in. They may enjoy having the Zionist menace as a rhetorical whipping post to distract from their own ineptness, but which of them is likely to go beyond rhetoric? Saudi Arabia won't. Syria won't act alone, and they won't cooperate with the Iraqis, so who would they ally with? Iraq's military is a broken force; the Iranians are far away and have other preoccupations. They could probably squeeze the oil for a little while, but it wouldn't last long: they need the money and they just aren't that concerned about the Palestinians. I don't see the Chinese having any relevant part to play in such a confrontation. I really believe that the best way to prevent these irritants from blowing up into major conflict is not to pile up missiles and bombs, but to promote free trade and economic interdependence. If the Chinese economy is based on product sales to the US and oil imported from the Middle East, that is a powerful incentive not to start a war. The more the major Arab states benefit from trade and become dependent on that benefit, the less likely they are to make radical moves.