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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (27631)	10/12/2000 5:02:43 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Hey, Allan, want to give me an update on the devil stock after today. I didn't sell yet. -g-

To: AllansAlias who wrote (27631)	10/12/2000 5:03:38 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

yep...and fifth waves can be fun! they're bidding the spoos up again on GLOBEX...lol.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (27631)	10/12/2000 9:44:19 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie from Earlie: A few thoughts on where we might be at the moment. Not to be overly dramatic, but whether bull or bear, the current stock market represents "uncharted water" for many participants. On the one hand, many bulls are experiencing a dawning, horror-stricken realization that "the world as we have known it" has indeed slipped from its normal axis. At the same time, the few bears that avoided mania-driven extinction, are having a tough time "engaging" (in the "Top-Gun" sense of the word), having been so frequently mauled, even when their research proved accurate. And no wonder. Bulls now contemplate the unthinkable,....serious losses emanating from "buying the dip" (a heretofore effortless road to early retirement), while the bears are frozen on the sidelines (timid spectators to what ought to have been an ursine feeding frenzy), fearful of the "inevitable brutal rally". In a nutshell, "uncertainty", the stock market's eternal nemesis, has regained center stage, shriveling buy side confidence at exactly the worst possible time. The market's normal "cushion", well-entrenched bearish short positions, are not only in short supply (lousy pun), but unlikely to develop any near term depth. No wonder the current slide has been so precipitous and little wonder should it prove enduring. It has been a veritable age since fundamentals commanded any respect in this market, its former dominance having been long since usurped by "T.A." Indeed, it has cost many practitioners of the former art either their jobs (if professionals in the game) or their capital (if persistent in their views). Sooner or later the contrary nature of the stock market can be counted upon to be punitive to the actions of a crowd. Consequently, whether bull or bear, few proponents of T.A. can genuinely claim his/her charts have guided him well in this latest collapse. The market cratered the fundamentalists early in this mania, and is now cremating the chartists, as long lasting bullish trends experience sea changes (few laws of man or nature guarantee the extension of an extrapolated line). At least the market has remained ruthlessly aloof with respect to favouritism. The stock market has rarely coexisted peacefully with "margin debt" for lengthy periods of time. Indeed it has always been a volatile marriage. Of late, margin debt has attained historic levels. As might be expected (but rarely is), collapsing stock prices have more than exacerbated the always nasty impact of heavy margin calls. Indeed in our view , margin calls currently "rule", with respect to the near term market direction and will essentially prevent any realistic rally until after the "cannon fodder" has been exhausted (ironically, exactly the same process as that which occurs in a short squeeze). On the backside of the current margin-related difficulties, a new worry will shortly emerge. The current market has been more than abrasive with respect to "wealth affect". Indeed it has likely inflicted irreparable damage thereto. If this proves an accurate observation, then an already shrinking N. American economy (an economy that is totally dependent on the continued heavy borrowing of an already "extended" consumer) will contract at an accelerated pace. This is not the stuff of which bullish "exuberance" is nourished. While very few stock market participants pay even a farthing's worth of attention to the credit markets, the foreboding chasm that has recently appeared in "spreads" and "swaps", speaks volumes with respect to an about-to-become-public debt-related "horror story". Has another LTCM emerged? Might the dreary and sordid bullion market abuse of gold pricing be finally coming to an explosive end? Has the heretofore stealthy selling pressure on U.S. treasuries emerged from the closets? We will know soon enough. Suffice to say that currently staggering N. American stock markets will not exhibit the resiliency displayed in the fall of 1998 (when musical chairs held sway for six weeks in the U.S. bond pits). Worse, the stock market's closest ally, Sir Alan, has little dry powder left. Should a repeat performance (of 1998) occur, the phrase "this time, it's different" will take on a whole new meaning. Best, Earlie