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To: mightylakers who wrote (7563)	10/14/2000 4:18:26 AM
From: Puck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero's presented a bunch of subscriber statistics and attempted to draw meaning from them. If you disagree, you must provide substantive evidence to the contrary. If you can do this, I'll believe you without question. But there must be evidence. We do live in post-Enlightenment times. Religious subjectivity has no place here. (I'm not disputing QCOM's claims of having a superior transmission technology. That is not my issue. It is most unfortunate that CDMA did not arrive until well after GSM and TDMA were long established. But it didn't and being ready for market has always been of cardinal importance in marketing success.)

To: mightylakers who wrote (7563)	10/14/2000 10:53:22 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Lakers, << you can use the statistic any way you want. That's why the great Tero using number from June to Aug to validate the so-called overall trend >> Tero is using numbers to his own advantage in the referenced article. BUT ... here is a breakdown of YTD subscriber growth through August end: GSM: 271 to 361.7 subs = + 33.5.1% YTD Growth CDMA: 50 to 72.0 subs = + 40 % YTD Growth TDMA: 35.1 to 54.3 subs = + 54.7% YTD Growth TDMA is the fastest growing technology worldwide YTD and could finish up the year that way. Korean subsidy bans still in effect. Sprint PCS having a lousy quarter, and DDI is too. I have expanded on this detail here: Message 14383146 Here is where I disagree with Tero however. This is not a long term trend. TDMA is a 2 trick pony (North America, & LA). By 2004, CDMA is projected to exceed 50% of US subscribers. CDMA will continue to grow in LA, but GSM will also start to deteriorate TDMA growth in Brazil when 1800 MHz spectrum is auctioned, Korea's subsidy bans will lift, Sprint PCS as well as Verizon will have very strong final quarters, and (maybe) DDI will get its act together. I wish Tero were around to argue the point, but I disagree with that deemphasizing TDMA products will impact negatively on Motorola. They have a nice lineup of WAP phones (that work) for both GSM & CDMA, the 2 most widely deployed technologies in the world. The sexy 7110, with its glitches has not helped Nokia's quality reputation. The 5185i (tri-mode) is indeed now in Verizon stores. I saw it yesterday, and they also had a sexy new dual-mode. Their tri-mode line-up displayed locally yesterday included the 5185i, the Audiovox CDM9000, the Kyocera 2035, the Motorola StarTAC 7868W, and the new Motorola Timeport P8767 Phone. It is odd, but last week Verizon had added the Timeport P8767 to their website (but not the Nokia or Kyocera) along with several new dual-modes including the Nokia. They are not there now. It was Friday afternoon, reps were pretty busy, and I didn't have a chance to talk with them, about the 5185i, but they were pushing it and the newly arrived Kyocera 2035 (which was sold out). I am still wondering if the 5185i hasn't been retrofitted with a Qualcomm chipset. It is the only tri-mode ofered by Verizon that is not WAP enabled. - Eric -