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To: slacker711 who wrote (7574)	10/14/2000 1:33:08 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Slacker - a number of CDMA operators have had very expensive promotional pushes. DDI spent enormous amounts to get the first-year sales spike. That launch spike is not sustainable. As Sprint's big 1999 offensive has winded down, their subs addition growth has dropped below that of 4-6 major rivals during this year. I suspect the same is happening in Latin America. You can't take the growth numbers from the period when an operator is burning up a mountain of cash to boost market share and then extrapolate that growth 4 years into the future. Korea is the main problem - but it's being compounded by DDI, Sprint and Latin America. Last winter's subscriber growth patterns were distorted by massive simultaneous booster campaigns taking place in USA, Japan and Latin America. Those campaigns are drawing to a close, because operators can't keep buying new subs as their base grows. Then we see the real competitive situation in a maturing market emerging. And the IS-95 operators are showing no signs of better customer loyalty or faster growth than the main rival standards. The theory of GSM and TDMA subs "defecting" to CDMA operators is not panning out. This is the second-generation situation. I know that 3G will change everything - but that does not mean that the false growth projections made for 2G will have no impact on vendors and operators. Tero