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To: Gary Kao who wrote (7587)	10/15/2000 1:08:49 PM
From: EJhonsa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

OT Post: I found your piece that starts off with the analogy to Aristophanes "The Clouds" quite arresting actually. May I ask you what the reference to "clouds" actually meant? That it "clouded" the judgement of the people at the two extremes? Thanks. Although this is a highly subjective question with no definitive answer given that Aristophanes currently isn't around for an interview, I took "the clouds" to be a reference to the unstable ground upon which the values of those who practiced Sophistry could possibly stand on. One of Aristophanes' primary criticisms of Sophistry was that it could be used to justify almost any sort of argument, regardless of how absurd/ridiculous it might seem should common sense be employed, and that some of those who are drawn to Sophistry might not try to learn it in order to become wiser and more "enlightened," but so that they can learn to manipulate others for their own ends. In "The Clouds," this theme was manifested through the character of Strepsiades, who wanted to become a Sophist only so that he could learn to argue his way out of paying debts that he owed. Going back to my original post, Aristophanes was trying to contrast the inherent subjectivity of Sophistry with Right Reason, which was rigid, dogmatic, and unflexible, and so provided its followers with a common set of values that would keep them from going too far "astray" in the name of their own selfish ends. Of course, as the 2400 years that have taken place after Aristohanes' death have shown, blindly following a rigid dogma can be quite destructive as well. With this kept in mind, the question Aristophanes is trying to get his readers/viewers to think about is an eternal one, one that was later discussed to a great extent by Nietzsche and Freud: is it better to encourage individuals within a society to form their own moral/social/political/cultural values, knowing very well the dangers that come with doing so, or is it better to try to control the values that they have by pushing a specific, unflexible dogma on them, knowing that this, too, is far from perfect? Now, coming back to the topic of investment analysis, it's possible to draw some interesting parallels between the manipulation-related risks inherent in Sophistry and the problems that could come with a world full of long-term investors who don't care to bother with short-term realities. As long as short-term fundamentals don't need to be paid attention to, an investor could become free to brush aside all the implications of all current events and all questions about valuation, the things that a short-term focus would allow you to always notice, in the name of a glorius point in the future where everything comes together. I have to admit, that after seeing the run-ups that took place in February/March with some more speculative issues that may not generate significant revenues for a long time, this danger has become all the more accentuated as of late. Of course, it doesn't have to end up like that. Just as Sophistry could be used to create a meaningful set of values like those of Right Reason, only on an individual basis and in a non-dogmatic manner, a person could analyze investments with a long-term focus while trying to be as level-headed, mindful of valuations, and respectful of present-day realities as one would be forced to should he/she analyze investments based on a short-term perspective. If this is done properly, then an investor can walk on the "clouds" of a long-term vision without falling into thin air. Eric