Two Down, One To Go, and Al Gore is in BIG Trouble
By John McIntyre
It could not have been much worse for Al Gore last night. Whether you feel he blew it, Bush dominated, or a little of both, the final result is very clear - Gore lost.
Bush won the first debate by not losing. While the pundits and the "polls" gave the first debate to Al Gore on debating points, the Governor helped himself by exceeded expectations in Boston. In other words, he covered the spread. But the real story of that debate, was how much Al Gore hurt himself.
The underlying foundation of Al Gore's resurgence from electoral oblivion late this summer was the dramatic improvement in the favorable/unfavorable spread between himself and George W. Bush. Gore was able to close this gap, and in fact, move ahead of the Governor in the favorability polls. With the economy strong and the country at peace, he was able to eliminate his "likeability" problem, and put himself in a position where he could win in November.
As the convention faded away, his stories before the first debate about "lullabies," his mother-in-law's drug bills, his "being there" at the start of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve all reminded people of the things they don't like about the Vice President. Gore's favorable numbers started to drop and Bush moved back into a small lead.
Then, in the first and most important debate, he "exaggerated," sighed, and, in general, annoyed the American people. The post-debate buzz centered on the Vice President's supposed trip to Texas with James Lee Witt and "poor Kailey's" principal refuting Gore's contention that kids are standing in class. And, in what may be the turning point in this campaign for the press, Saturday Night Live aired a devastating parody, portraying the Vice President as an obnoxious know it all, that unfortunately for Gore had a ring of the truth.
The killer for the Democrats was the other half of Saturday Night Live's parody where they portrayed Governor Bush as a complete idiot. The Gore campaign piled on the theme with Mark Fabiani, declaring "Governor Bush seems incapable of talking about the important issues in this campaign in a coherent way. The American people deserve to hear him explain his policies and address the issues without bumbling and babbling."
So, with the help of SNL and the Gore campaign, expectations for Bush were again lowered going into Wednesday's debate. Last night was not a matter of Bush exceeding expectations or merely covering the spread, the Governor flat out whipped Vice President Gore. The potentially damaging impression Democrats were attempting to make stick, that George W. Bush is not smart enough, or that he does not have the heft or "gravitas" to be President is now GONE.
The key problem for the Democrats is that George Bush did what he had to do, dispelling the impression that he is "dumb." On the other hand, Al Gore while not offending, fell short in convincing America to like him. And in his attempt to become more "likeable," Gore disarmed and slept-walked through almost the entire debate, while Bush pummeled him with quotes like:
I think one way for us to end up being viewed as the ugly American is for us to go around the world saying, ''We do it this way, so should you." Now, we trust freedom. We know freedom is a powerful, powerful, a powerful force much bigger than the United States of America, as we saw recently in the Balkans. But maybe I misunderstand where you're coming from, Mr. Vice President, but I think the United States must be humble and must be proud and confident of our values, but humble in how we treat nations that are figuring out how to chart their own course.
Well, first, let me just say one comment about what the vice president said. I think one of the lessons in between World War I and World War II is we let our military atrophy, and we can't do that. We've got to rebuild our military. But one of the problems we have in the military is we're in a lot of places around the world....And I think that's where maybe the vice president and I begin to have some differences. I am worried about overcommitting our military around the world. I want to be judicious in its use.
Let me tell you where the biggest discrimination comes: in public education, when we just move children through the schools. My friend Phyllis Hunter's here. She had one of the greatest lines of all lines. She said, ''Reading is the new civil right.'' And she's right. And to make sure our society is as hopeful as it possibly can be, every single child in America must be educated, I mean every child.
I don't really think it's any of my, you know, any of my concerns how you conduct your sex life. And I think that's a private matter. And I think that's the way it ought to be. But I'm going to be respectful for people. I'll tolerate people. And I support equal rights, but not special rights for people.
Bush won undecided voters with these words. Now, towards the end of the debate Vice President Gore, perhaps sensing his new passive approach wasn't working, did score some points with his attacks on Texas. "I mean, if you were the governor of a state that was dead last in health care for families, and all of a sudden you found yourself with the biggest surplus your state had ever had in its history, wouldn't you want to maybe use some of it (to) climb from 50th to say 45 or 40 or something, or maybe better? I would." This was effective and Bush was OK in deflecting Gore's attacks, but there is no question he could have done a better job. However, for the Vice President it was a case of too little too late. He scored some points, but Bush was so far ahead it didn't matter.
The clock is ticking away for the Gore campaign, 26 days and counting, they are losing, and they know it. The debates, which were supposed to showcase Gore's superior experience and highlight his "winning issues," have helped Bush, not Gore. The Governor, who was winning before the first debate has calmed the concerns about his "fitness" for the office and has strengthened his lead. If Bush can get through next week's debate gaffe-free, the election for President will effectively be over. Now the polls and the press may do their best to change this reality, but those are the facts.
So expect Gore to fight like mad. He will likely discard all his handlers' advice this coming Tuesday and just be himself. He will be aggressive and attacking in an attempt to generate a desperately needed Bush mistake. It's a high-risk strategy to be sure, but at this point Gore does not have any other options. Abortion and the Supreme Court will be his focus in the debate and probably for the rest of the campaign.
If Bush stumbles the race will be thrown back wide open. However, barring any gaffes Tuesday, Bush's odds of winning will grow as each day ticks away. Gore's only hope would be to time one last press/poll surge to coincide with election day, and pray he can target enough states to get over 270. With liberals less than 30 days from a Republican President, Congress and Supreme Court, the assault will be vicious. If there is one thing you can count on during this closing stretch, it won't be boring.
John McIntyre writes for RealClearPolitics
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