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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1669)	10/15/2000 3:16:24 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8046

Jerry, please feel free to post your thoughts on market direction here, as it is sorely needed. And what good is a great stock pick if the market's about to roll over and tank and take that great pick with it!! I especially appreciate the P&F reads as I am P&F clueless.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1669)	10/15/2000 4:09:58 PM
From: sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8046

"the FED is no longer out of the picture here..and my guess is after the election if things continue on this upward path, they may raise rates again..." Interesting theory...and recently a hobby of many -- guessing the economic future. That said -- a question: Upward path? Why? Inflation? Core PPI? Oil? Seems you are assuming the absolute worst. Maybe it will come to fruition, but seems just as "loaded" as the bull posts at the top of the cycle claiming "all is perfect." With all the warnings it seems clear the economy is indeed slowing. The consumer-related areas of the economy (including the consumer internet segment which has been absolutely decimated) have been -- and probably will continue -- NOT to be the place to be on the long side. Lots of this has NOT filtered down yet. But it will. It always does. And those monthly numbers will cause some nice rallies -- u can bet on that (unless something NOT currently priced into the market -- like war -- occurs). Anyone investing in Sears, Home Depot and Wall Mart should not expect nice gains anytime soon. Sure, the labor pool is still tight, but so far there has been no indication this will cause a ramp in inflation. And even hawkish members of the FED are talking up "productivity" as a check on inflation. Granted, the FED does NOT want to see "asset inflation." That said, MPPP at 100 is not an issue now...(and should not have been an issue in February -- but for the shameful greed of the underwriters). In this environment the FED simply cannot raise rates without seriously running the risk of a prolonged recession. The problems that "frighten" you so much may very well mean no LOWERING of rates...and that wish was likely going to be used as the pretext for this year's end of year rally. Now the houses will have to look elsewhere. And look they will. Money needs a place to go...and bonds are not yet a viable alternative. All this said, there is no doubt whatsoever that the averages have been VERY weak for weeks...and in a general downtrend for months. The DOW and S&P may continue their weakness as the effects of the slowdown continue percolating through the economy -- particularly the consumer sectors, very well represented in the DOW and S&P. On the tech side, questions about the chip cycle keep investors leery. That may continue a bit as consumer weakness may hit here as well. Or maybe not. Hard to tell yet. Other areas of technology show no signs of slowing whatsoever. What does all this mean? Nothing much, except, perhaps that the market does not actually know where it wants to go. FUNDAMENTAL events will likely be determinant. Did we turn on Friday? Wish I knew. Just don't think its really possible to know quite yet. All this said, there is a heck of a lot of money still short -- and that is possibly a very strong reason why any coming market weakness will be muted...and any strong rallies will be all the stronger. JMHO Gonna watch the Birds now. ;)

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1669)	10/15/2000 5:21:07 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8046

the FED is no longer out of the picture here..and my guess is after the election if things continue on this upward path, they may raise rates again... Just to keep a difference of opinion on this thread, and an open discussion <g> I am still surprised at your recent bearishness, as I am still an unrelenting bull. With the exception of my distrust as Friday's rally unfolded, I always turn bearish for a short time at the absolute bottom, a great contrarian indicator <g> My opinion only... is that the economy may soon show signs of slowing too fast, since the reaction is so delayed, and that there is the possibility of a coming recession. Barring unforeseen disasters, the chances seem slim of a rate drop to me, but the chance of further increases seem even slimmer. I am seeing signs of the "Wealth effect" diminishing everywhere. Fairfield County, Connecticut is where a large amount Wall Street Big $ earners live... Greenwich, Stamford and Westport in particular, right next door to me. I am in the midst of it here - (although unfortunately just an observer LOL) - huge beach houses and custom built mansions and lots of Mercedes and Lexus SUVs. Seems like the the wallets are tightening slightly around here to me compared to a year ago... Not to say that it's up up up from here, but I think the bull lives on, but we will continue to have incredible volatility, a true gift for daytraders and that it will be a VERY rocky road. Not only are traders part of the cause of the volatility, but now the big boys also as they have been trading short term just like us. In the end we can end up being the beneficiaries of the volatility if we stay on our toes. But it's a stockpicker's market out there, and if you choose the right picks, it could appear to be an awesome bull market with those sunglasses on...

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1669)	10/15/2000 8:46:03 PM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 8046

OJ best case scenario we go to 3500 then down on CARPINO Cycle low at end of monthj with a higher low if not look out below. This thread you are all over the place my friend..LOL

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1669)	10/15/2000 8:46:26 PM
From: Rich1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8046

OJ best case scenario we go to 3500 then down on CARPINO Cycle low at end of monthj with a higher low if not look out below. This thread you are all over the place my friend..LOL Tomorrow strong day???