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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (8760)	10/16/2000 6:24:29 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Cary, I'll post a chart of btb vs AMAT monthly price in an hour or two. Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (8760)	10/16/2000 6:33:51 PM
From: Demosthenes	Respond to of 10921

<<Zeev and BTB, Zeev made a statement about a correlation between peak cycle prices and peak BTB. 1. There is no a priori logical reason for the correlation, if it indeed exists; and 2. One need not understand BTB to observe the correlation, if it indeed exists; I believe that attacking Zeev is akin to "biting the hand that feeds you." If his statement can be verified by historical data (and the data is certainly available), he has rendered us all a great service. I think the market has taken its toll on the participants of this and other threads. When personal attack replaces, simple verification of a purported statement of fact, the utility of the thread as an investment forum seems certainly in doubt.>> Cary, You make great points and your contributions on SI are top notch. It is my opinion that Zeev has simplified this matter of BTB to a degree unsupportable, as you allude to above. I think others (Ian comes to mind) have gone around this bush with Zeev before without much progress. BTB is misunderstood and misused, in my opinion. And it is overemphasized as one of many elusive variables in following this sector. I don't think I've ever heard Zeev truly grasp the importance of other variables that apply to this cycle. I had no intention of causing a stir and certainly did not think these results would ensue. As for Zeev's hand, I never knew I bit it. If so, I apologize for the sake of continued thoughtful interaction here on SI. Best, D

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (8760)	10/16/2000 6:35:42 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I called my broker to buy some NVLS after hours, given the few positive posts on that thread from the CC. About 2M shares have traded in after hours and the stock is down 5/8. Given the huge drop during the regular session, I expected some up move, so I held off on the buy. If positive comments on NVLS move the whole sector higher tomorrow, then I agree that the selling is done with. Otherwise I'll thread carefully. ST I think I'll go take a look at GM's charts and see if I can see a correlation between the rate of change of BTB and the stock cycle. I'll also take a look at extreme values of BTB too.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (8760)	10/16/2000 7:01:49 PM
From: Wildstar	Respond to of 10921

IIRC, during the bottom in stock prices in 1998, the BTB was below 0.6 for two straight months, and as soon as it increased month-to-month, prices on semi-equips nearly double on the big-caps (AMAT, NVLS, etc.) and tripled or more on the little guys (CYMI, ASYT, etc.) in less than a month. And there was no looking back. So I think that Zeev's statement was correct for that bottom. I don't recall about the last top.