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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edward miller who wrote (76491)	10/17/2000 10:39:28 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Edward, your post is so spot-on I felt I just had to reply. Not many people are aware of how great the damage done in late '97 was to the smaller guys. I lived through it and saw many people who ramped up in '96 and early '97 get hurt very badly. A number also disappeared in bankruptcy, while most just barely made it by the skin of their teeth. In this latest cycle the majors still have not uncorked the capex genie, and are quite late in doing so in my opinion. This most recent quarter will see some balance sheets get cleaned up to the extent these companies are swimming in cash. It remains to be seen how long it will take for that cash to find it's way down the food chain to the drillers & other OSX guys. Sharp

To: edward miller who wrote (76491)	10/17/2000 11:36:44 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Edward, isopatch, I appreciate your thoughts. I can't help but contrast the way KMG has been the high bidder on so many off shore leases for the last 18 months or so and has been so actively drilling. I can see that the smaller companies had to cut back and get healthy and isopatch's point about mergers and reorganizations makes good sense. What I can't see is given the fundamentals of oil projected at prices at or above the low to mid 20's into the future and with declining production and increasing demand, why at least one of the majors hasn't jumped well ahead of the pack on exploration? I'm sure it's not a simply answered question and if it's a combination of factors that are weakening over time such as mergers, balance sheets and worker shortages in the exploration co's, or even a general industry reluctance to act until the risks are much lower, I'll be happy with that. I was mostly just curious about whether anyone saw any connection between the actons of the majors, the actions of OPEC, the meetings many months ago between some of the opec countries and some of the majors, or alternative energy or anything that would provice a different explanation for some feet dragging on exploration spending by the majors when the future for oils looks good. Edward, I appreciate your thoughts on how the turndown affected not only the balance sheets but also the mood in the industry. OT, I can identify with how it felt for those workers with families and bills trying hard to make a living in an industry that was on the ropes. My dad worked road construction and during the late 60's when all of the state highway funds in California virtually dried up, a similar thing happened to a lot of middle aged guys with no work and no other skills. It wasn't something I ever wanted to see again.