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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (25212)	10/17/2000 6:14:51 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Nancy, I think you have an important point there. If we continue in this manner, we indeed may put a bottom earlier than I thought. I typically "get an inkling" of such a possibility when looking at rallies from the lows. Particularly the leaders. Unfortunately, my point of reversal is a strong close above $75 on AMAT before I can make "a reversal call", and that is quite high. In time this will come down. Another test I often use is on retest of the lows, which and how many of the stock refuse to go lower, or the lack of price decline in face of bad earnings. In essence, I look for important divergences. If you remember, on the last superb earnings report of CYMI, there was a strong rally to $52 (prior to earnings) and the stock sold off sharply the day after, never to reach that level since. This major divergence reinforced my relatively bearish stance on the stock. When we see the inverse, I think we may have a signal that the bottom is in. Will the BTB make a bottom (either above or below 1.00), I don't know, if it is below 1.00, I think that the subsequent recovery could be quite powerful. If it is above 1.00 it might just put a strong leg up, but, IMHO, not lead to new highs. We must remeber that bear markets, just like bull markets, go to extremes, and thus at the end of this bear move, we should see extreme low valuations for the sector, IMHO. I thought that my recent "forcast" of $13 to $14 was "fair", but the way we broke through the $22 area may imply that my recent forecast was, as often they are, optimistic. Tighten your seat belt. Zeev irrevolute.iuma.com