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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (76560)	10/17/2000 6:53:56 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Just after the new year for tax reasons? Are you referring to the April-May melt in tech and wondering if it will happen in the OSX? Some folks I know raised cash to cover taxes in Jan-Feb (to their credit, they pay their taxes early). These folks made a tremendous amount of paper money from trading (buying the dips, nothing more) in 99 - far in excess of their normal income (much to Greenspans credit). I don't think that group of folks is as present in the OSX, nor do I think the trading gains are that great. Accordingly, I don't think they'll be a big selloff early next year. On some issues, (FGH comes to mind, much to my chagrin) there may be some tax loss selling. My first screen for companies to short going into tax loss season is that it spends the majority of its volume (over the year) about 20-30% above its avg price in Oct-Nov (the market cap and % fund holding determines the time). FGH, and now NSS fit that. Numerous teeter on the edge - especially late cycle stuff. GLBL, PGO teteering on the edge. Tech historically has weathered inflationary periods well, as they should. I started looking around a month ago, found one (HYBR). Since then the only co I found that seems like a buy at the moment is AMD. In fact, calls are probably appropriate for AMD. If you're not going to rotate a little into gold because it appears to lack the "necessary" demand that oil does, I'd look at silver. It's been in a supply/demand defecit for over 10 years, and its use in film is still growing and is expected to grow for at least 5 years. Over 80% of the demand is inelastic and it should be thought of as both an industrial metal and a precious metal (much like platinum or palladium). It's the single best form of asset diversification one can buy. PS did you wind up grabbing some PYR?

To: diana g who wrote (76560)	10/17/2000 7:57:01 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 95453

diana g, My guess is that a lot of the smart money is getting out now. It's the old sell on the news strategy. A lot of people do not want to sell out now because they want to wait for the shortage to happen. The problem is too many investors are all thinking the same thing, and we go down instead of up in the winter after the shortage is real or after we have another warm winter. Either way you lose. My best guess, and it's only an educated guess from someone how has watched these cycles for over 25 years, is to be out late fall to early winter to maximize profits. Jim

To: diana g who wrote (76560)	10/17/2000 8:14:30 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Princess Di re: how to play NG ? depends on the messenger, not the message (VBG) 1. There "aint" no Nat Gas cartel & remember Sept 1999... jim p & aggie of course are correct on the inevitable return of supply & demand balance to the NG market for the reasons they stated. - nothing changed demandwise to the degree to sustain a doubling of the last 5 year avg NG price - nothing to "that degree"... 2. Numerous Fund Mgrs & Analysts have cited NG breaking under $4.25 as the "end" to this upside NG leg 3. Stockpicking is paramount; special situations - especially production growth (OXY w/ altura), or drillbit/exploration upside (OIL this past year), or takeout candidates ( like SFY,UPR,TX), maybe pure value plays like TLM or the small caps - don't want to mention them because that would be pumping & dumping my "agenda"... 4. Most important; was to have allready taken profits & stepped back to allow the "non-believers" to get shaken out here to be able to walk back in on this pullback to re-position for the final peak demand season leg & any ME event Oil-spike. 5. Surely; if we haven't allready seen the peak of O&G prices; we will shortly upon weather related peak demand catalysts. The only way exiting this winter does NOT make sense is a Middle East "Event" thereafter... otherwise the remaining E&P play is measured in weeks & months - not qtrs... jim p is 110% correct; the non-energy specialist money has allready left the building... those remaining here have 2 bets: A Winter supply crisis, or a ME "event" creating a spike..."or" - multiple expansion upon the back of a significant new upside breakout leg to the OSX (perhaps thru 165ish) which will raise shareprices even into declining commodity prices & eps/cfps. I think jim p may be conservative on his NG targets of $2 mcf, maybe not; bit it's irrelevant once we break that $4.25 level & head down to the $3's ... I think we'll squeeze out at least 6 mos of 2001 in the mid $3 range; but by next shoulder season - the low-mid $2's will return and the first break under $4.25 here is EXIT CITY... I'd only remain in special opp plays, or heavilly levererd Oil vs. Gas companies if the Crude story remains intact... NEV VPI, maybe OXY... the former messeage: =================================================================== "trade the Commodity price tape" To: Roebear who wrote (76011) From: SliderOnTheBlack Wednesday, Oct 11, 2000 10:22 AM ET Reply # of 76576 <Not sure how energy will hold up in the short term, any opinions?> Roebear; we seeing a flight to safety rotation - obviously ride it here. I'm going to trade my Oilpatch stocks "defensively" - in that I'll trade them off the crude Oil & Nat Gas price tape - period. Let 'em ride if Oil & Gas prices keep moving up and right now - we're getting the flight to safety rotation; but - those same inflows - become overnight outflows the minute they decide to return to tech. So the minute the sentiment & media spin changes & the tape turns; or if the overall market just implodes (which is the major risk I see vs. a Tech bounce that sticks) - take profits and use tight trailing stops ===================================================================== To: John Q Public who wrote (75848) From: SliderOnTheBlack Monday, Oct 9, 2000 4:37 PM ET Reply # of 76577 <<"The market will allways value/discount good, or bad hedging & discount the multiples of future CFPS & EPS as oppossed to the present. Bottomline; few are growing production at significant rates - ie: the depletion problem that you & the other E&P enthusiasts have alluded to many times. I think E&P's are among the premier sub-sector leverage vehicles within the oilpatch - "WHEN" they are mis-priced to commodity prices as they were back when we first saw the initial commodity price bounces - but the sector stayed priced like it was at $1.65 Gas & $12 Oil - remember that first OPEC meeting to reign in supply - when everyone said OPEC would ultimately cheat & fall apart ? - "that" was the risk vs. reward inflection point; and the risk vs reward opps "rarely" occur during peak commodity price levels by the way... The bet here is for a Dead Cat Bounce; or a Saudi led spike thru $40 prior to the elections; or a speculative breakout due to ME unrest - but, those are ultimately selling/profit taking & exit-rotation opps imho. Surely a bounce trade from here is in the cards as long as the overall market doesn't tank; but ! - that's the exit point imho & clearly rotating into the drillers & later cycle service co's becomes the play in addition to the integrateds that are "net -buyers" of crude oil/refiners etc... When did the E&P's implode last year ? - at the exact "peak" of Nat Gas prices... any significant nearterm E&P rally prior to winter peak demand is THE "exit & rotate point" imho... We shall see... I just think it's about to become "Driller Time" ...within the oilpatch. But; if we get a "BLACK OCTOBER" - market event; it's all going to be cheaper; much so - and soon... ====================================================================== To: John Q Public who wrote (75853) From: SliderOnTheBlack Monday, Oct 9, 2000 5:34 PM ET Reply # of 76578 JQP - I'm not saying there isn't upside to the E&Ps from here... I just think that many, if not the vast majority of E&P's will not surpass, let alone return to their former highs of late; without some Middle East Event, or a pre-election spike of crude thru $40 - but; even that - is a profit taking / rotation event-opp imho. I think crude will be $23-$28ish next year & Nat Gas $3.25-$3.65 for at least the first 6 mos of the year - still very profitable prices; but those O&G prices will lead to lower sequential reporting qtrs and the E&P's will NOT return to, or surpass former 2000 highs next year under a lower sequentially reporting environement for cfps & eps. Again, only those unique stories - those with really terrible hedging still in place; who will actually realize higher cash flow & earnings into a lower commodity price environment - NEV & BR come to mind; or those with significant production growth, or major exploration finds will have a chance to really move to new highs. Where we may agree; if this is your point (I'm giving you a gracefull exit here (VBG); is if the market really rotates to the oilpatch & forces significant multiple expansion into falling eps & cfps numbers. - that could happen; but I'd rather be in drillers who can & will continue to ramp earnings & cash flow EVEN into falling O&G prices and they will also see multiple expansion - so why not really be leveraged to the "hot" subsector ? =================================================================== To: John Q Public who wrote (75925) From: SliderOnTheBlack Tuesday, Oct 10, 2000 4:02 PM ET Reply # of 76578 I still think than any significant spike here is a (E&P) profit taking & rotation opportunity-play to drillers/later cycle service plays imho - as quite obviously, both recent history & common sense endorse that the E&P pureplays are more commodity price sensitive than will be the driller/service co's - especially at this stage of the cycle and especially to the downside... all I have to say is - remember Sept 1999. We shall see... much of the remaining E&P bet is a weather related one - the drillers & some service co's will unquestionably still ramp earnings into declining commodity prices for the next 6-9 mos - so why "bet" on the weather when you get equal if not superior value, better fundamentals and are not reliant upon weather, or a Middle East crisis to sustain longterm fundamental momenteum over the next 2-3 quarters. I do NOT think Oil, or Gas prices will be higher in April than they are today - quite the contrary and as we learned last September; the market will disocunt that move well, well in advance. Personally; I'd slowly, but steadilly "average" out of E&P strength here and average into drillers here... just my personal opinion; but - you can still maintain exposure to the group; just be smart; make sure you find value & hopefully those individual co's with upside to production & exploration, or those who are still dramatic laggards in fundamental valuation mutliples like TLM etc. >> ==================================================================== ... nice to see a few people agreeing on the same "message" - but, above all remember: ~ these "aint" growth stocks - they be cyclicals ~ ...and because the next up leg to the Oilpatch cycle is not guaranteed here, nor imho will it be easy, let alone necessarially "big"; the next "Big & Easy" money play in the oilpatch is going to be on the downside - short; and it's going to arrive sooner, much sooner than most realize.