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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (34372)	10/19/2000 1:41:55 AM
From: kilo_watt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Sometimes I think I'm still too close to Novell to really be able to offer pertinent analysis. To me, the real issue is that Novell remains virtually unable to penetrate new markets. Novell continues to focus on the installed base. Frustratingly, even Novell's initiatives to move beyond the installed base seem to eventually come full circle. Novell has been further stymied by being unable to gain traction with the companies in which it maintains minority investments through its venture fund. At the same time, it has not been able to use strategic investments to acquire new technologies. Certainly RHAT and Just-On counter those statements, but consider that the investment in RHAT has been long term and RHAT's relevance in the marketplace is becoming more and more questionable. While the Just-on team is making things happen (a la the GlobalCenter deal) they are still effectively using Drew's technology and are operating in a rogue fashion. Rogues do not scale. Further, that team is sloughing off their salespeople and concentrating on using engineers and techies to sell the stuff. I am also one of those who believes that the Utah culture is a serious hindrance to Novell's success. So all that said, what do I think about one of the caching OEMs expanding its offering? That's great, but it's far too meaningless overall to be impactful. I don't want this to sound as though I've just handed down summary judgment about this company. But until something radical happens, Novell's future doesn't look too bright. The thing is, the rest of the world is moving so much more quickly than Utah. Sure, there are a few visionary technologists out there by the rendering plant, but the fact remains that technology is not driving this economy-- new business models are. Novell simply cannot comprehend that statement. In my sympathetic nightmares about Novell, they are bought by Computer Associates. -k_w-