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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barry A. Watzman who wrote (58102)	10/19/2000 12:54:55 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 93625

Superb post Barry. It seems that these somewhat off the record comments have a secret purpose, and that is to make it clear to the MM's that Intel won't be heartbroken if DRDRAM folds, and Intel will do nothing to prop it up. Changing this psychology can have a substantial impact on price premiums of DRDRAM vs. SDRAM, which I believe is still top priority @ Intel. The bits and pieces of the Rambus/Intel contract I've seen leads one to believe that Intc really has no choice but to make DRDRAM work or walk away from the chipset business. The latter not being a viable option, Intc must find a way to get the DRDRAM premium down, and kicking and screaming hasn't worked. These comments are much like the "take-away" close in sales, where you walk off as if you're not interesed in doing business with the prospective client. Can be very effective. What's that i see... premiums shrinking?

To: Barry A. Watzman who wrote (58102)	10/19/2000 9:32:05 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 93625

Barry, I am not sure if DDR can or cannot perform at 3 Ghz. I think the major problem will be the extent of an RDRAM infrastructure in place. As long as you knew that INTC will stop at nothing to assure such infrastructure is in place, you could also assume that RDRAM will be the eventual winner. There are still a lot of issues that are unresolved, IMHO. If we end up with a DRAM industry split between DDR and RDRAM, both may end up costing more than if there were a single standard. Why would INTC want such a situation (higher cost DRAM assures that INTC gets less of the PC pie for its processors and chipsets)? Will the legal challenge to RMBS IP succeed or not? I do not know the answer nor can I even come up with an intelligent speculation. Will the IP extend to SDRAM (of lesser importance since SDRAM will probably be phased out), will it extend to DDR? Since I do not have the answer to these, and I fear that my fellow threadsters have not resolved this issue either, the fact that INTC' resolve has weakened markedly is of grave concern. After Barrett says that the support of the bu$$ was a grave mistake, he will be expected, like any other businessman to cut his losses and plan for the future. Is that plan a RDRAM less DRAM market? I really do not know. All this ignorance of the fundamental issues lead me to rely again on the technical behavior as the basic tool to try and decipher the future. In the next 60 days, we should have a relatively strong market, and IMTO, if the bu$$ during this period does not challenge and conquer $75, I feel that by the time we enter into the post "Year end rally" phenomenom (like late in February, early in March of next year), the bu$$ could very well be at half what it is today. Will it then be a bargain? Quite possiby, ask me then. Will I change my mind? Of course I will, if I see a new technical trend evolving. I think that today should be an interesting test, a close above the $68 we printed earlier during the last five trading days will be very positive. Zeev