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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (38509)	10/19/2000 10:24:21 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, >we ran a NAIC Investmen Club analysis of AMAT we came up with a Buy range of 12.50-$54, a hold range of 54-$95, and a sell range of $95-$131< I for one would buy even below 12.50 :) Since in the past AMAT's low has occurred within weeks of the SEMI orders low [and I expect that to happen again], we must be in an interim stage. SEMI orders for August were at a high and they typically ramp down over many months, not instantly. So, anyone waiting for the SEMI orders cycle low should just lean back and wait for AMAT. But the interim stage stock movement might be profitable. To time it I would use nothing but TA - no industry rumors, no btb/orders/shipments, no statements by Mr. Morgan and other industry leaders and most of all no analyst opinions. Jacob yesterday posted a list of items he'd ignore. SEMI orders were on that list. I disagree: SEMI orders can be a great help in nailing the cycle bottom, which can be near a stock price bottom. But for this stage we're in I agree with Jacob, ignore everything but TA. We have seen where fundamental analysis got us. Those who just hold AMAT no matter what have my indulgence. :) Gottfried